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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Go, Mike Castle, Go! (Sort of.)



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A reader plugged into Delaware Republican politics — definitely the Mike Castle side of the party, not the Christine O’Donnell side — offers this assessment:

O’Donnell’s chances of winning are enhanced if Castle mounts a write-in campaign.

Castle and Coons will essentially split New Castle County, and O’Donnell will clean up everywhere else. Very analogous to Rubio-Meeks-Crist in FL. Remember, O’Donnell obtained 180,000 votes in a losing effort against Biden in 2008. I would bet that only a small percentage of those votes would siphon off to Castle. The danger to Coons is that Castle will steal many independents and some Democrats as well.

I do not believe Castle will mount a write-in, because he knows that it will help O’Donnell — unless his thinking is really muddled.

So why then is Castle talking this up? Ego and hurt, for starters, on a personal level. Less charitably, the longer he vacillates, the harder for O’Donnell to reunite the GOP — having the effect of “freezing” the numbers against her for another week.

I still believe the GOP made a huge mistake in denying Castle the Senate nomination, because he would have easily defeated Coons. In a two-way race, O’Donnell’s odds are still very steep — perhaps 30 percent chance of winning, and that would require a wave. As an aside, a Castle write-in could help the GOP down-ballot. All the down-ballot GOP candidates in New Castle County are now in a much more precarious position with O’Donnell at the top of the ticket.

I do agree with your assertion that O’Donnell is under-polling.

So if I want Mike Castle to mount a write-in campaign to help O’Donnell, am I still a RINO?

UPDATE: Jumping off a point made in the comments, Harry Reid calls Chris Coons his pet; the Democrat has issue a statement denying that he’s a Marxist, and now Mike Castle may split the vote three ways….  Man, who put the hex on Chris Coons? Er, don’t answer that.


Tags: Chris Coons , Christine O'Donnell , Mike Castle


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