One of my Delaware guys — very plugged into state Republican circles, closer to the Mike Castle fans than the Christine O’Donnell fans — sends me a bombshell:
I am hearing from a credible source that Castle’s odds of mounting a write-in campaign are as high as 50-50. They believe they can win, and lots of anecdotal evidence that I can share tells me this: most independents and even many Democrats are very unhappy with the choice between O’Donnell and Coons. People are telling me:
O’Donnell is awful on personal character but right on the public policy issues.
Coons has outstanding character who will be a rubber stamp for Obama-Biden.
I would surmise that key operatives in Republican circles would give Castle a wink and a nod: either Castle wins or O’Donnell wins in a three-way; O’Donnell cannot win in a two-way — so a write-in is worth a roll of the dice. Castle’s team plans to run him as a moderate and then promise to caucus with the GOP to reassure some of the Republican base.
I’m sure a lot of Christine O’Donnell fans will not be happy with this news, but this may very well work out quite well for her options, particularly if Castle sends as much time criticizing Coons as he does O’Donnell. Her victory threshold may be dropping from 50 percent plus one to as low as 33 percent plus one. (Yes, there are candidates from the parties of Libertarians, Independence and . . . er . . . “Blue Enigma.”)
UPDATE: Another Republican offers this anecdote: “I was driving through there a few days ago, I saw TONS of Castle signs still blanketing areas by the side of the road. That suggests to me that enthusiasm for a Castle bid in a three-way race would be high.”
Perhaps. Or, you know, maybe somebody forgot to collect them.
ANOTHER UPDATE: O’Donnell fans are one or two polls away from knowing whether this is a good idea. For now, there’s directly contradictory speculation from Campaign Spot readers on whether a Castle write-in bid hurts Coons or O’Donnell more.
Take one:
I’m not sure this works out as well for O’Donnell as people may think. Why did she win the primary? Because she was the conservative, or because people really liked Christine O’Donnell? The masturbation and witchcraft comments shouldn’t matter, but they will, and Mike Castle appears to be a popular politician among independents in Delaware. If Castle reassures Republicans that he’ll caucus as one, then I think this begins to look like Connecticut 2006 in reverse: O’Donnell pulls a slim majority of Republicans but Castle pulls the rest, along with independents and some moderate Democrats. In which case, I would think O’Donnell’s looking at 15-25%, not 35-40%.
Take two:
This is one of O’Donnell’s “fans” that supports a Castle write in. He will not take any of her supporters. He will take Coons supporters. In my opinion the best way for her to win is for a Castle write in. The News Journal had an online poll and I imagine people like myself voted for Castle to run. This wil make the election a lot more fun.
Does anyone seriously think Castle will announce beforehand he will caucus with the GOP? Why? If the GOP do not take the Senate, then he can caucus with the Democrats and have some actual power - if the GOP does win the Senate back in a tidal wave, then sure, we will hear 'I am with you guys, where is my committee?'
As far as O'Donnell's 'character' issues - I'm voting for a CA governor who couldn't be bothered (or didn't care) to even vote for years - because the state is a trainwreck and she might help bring it back.
If they like the votes O'Donnell brings to the table, nobody is not going to vote for her because of Bill Maher clips. I also think if she is wise and stays in Delaware, people will get to know her and (especially women) will see the hatchet job on her in the national press.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is a win-win.
If Castle actually wins, he will caucus with the GOP regardless of what people think, he is a loyal guy, and he owes the state GOP, the NRSC, etc, everyone that strongly supported him. No one has burned any bridges with Castle (except maybe the voters). Or, he may take enough votes from Coons for an O'Donnell win.
Either way, Coons loses.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUsually write-in's don't mean squat. But this is a case where if Castle actually runs, I could see any of the three candidates winning. It would be a fascinating race and a ton of fun to watch.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think a loyal guy to the GOP would have accepted the will of the voters, congratulated the winner, and rallied the moderates to defeat Obama's agenda.
But hey..that is just me...
If he wins as an independent, he certainly won't feel he 'owes' the GOP anything - and I have no doubt his moderate leanings will be even more pronounced and he will be that wonderful bipartisan cover for a lot of liberal Democrat legislation.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWait, I thought RINOs was "loyal Republicans" that could be counted on as "team players"?? Guess not.
If you ever needed an argument for the need to purge the RINOs out of the party, this election cycle is it.
Crist. Murkowski. And now possibly Castle.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen the primary doesn't go their way, they pout and launch independent bids that seem to primarily appeal to Democrats.
"O’Donnell is awful on personal character but right on the public policy issues.
Coons has outstanding character who will be a rubber stamp for Obama-Biden."
Yeesh. I have to admit, I'm very worried about electing a person of questionable character who will discredit the tea party.
Mark Sanford had all the right policy positions, too, but... well...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf he wins I hope they put his desk right next to Jim DeMint's. Lol.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"What's that you say Lassie? Castle won and the Republicans have taken the senate by 11 and all the conservative guys want to invite Castle to a blanket party in the parking lot?"
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNeat! I would imagine Delware voters would like a third option -- lots of "moderates" and "Reagan Democrats" really don't want to vote Blue this year, but can't bring themselves to vote for O'Donnell either. Hence Castle peels off Coons' more centrist voters. I don't think O'Donnell has many centrist supporters, which is why she's stuck around 40% in the polls and also why she has little to fear from a Castle write-in run.
Castle can help O'Donnell win by being the Crist/Murkowski in the race. It would be most helpful for her if he: 1) trained his attacks mostly on Coons rather than O'Donnell, and 2) remained vague about which party he will caucus with (the better to "reassure" moderates and not steal votes from the official Republican candidate.)
Or if Castle winds up stealing a lot of O'Donnells votes and winning the election, that works too. (It's always possible one of the other candidates campaigns may collapse in the manner of Dede Scozzaflazza -- who knows it might even wind up an O'Donnell vs. Castle race!)
Me, I've always been agnostic on which Republican wins in this state -- the most important thing is to smack the McGovernite Dems down nationwide, as hard as possible. Getting rid of Nancy & Harry is job #1!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTo those of you worried about Castle's loyalty -- suppose he wins as a write-in candidate.
Would you rather he caucus with the Dems or the GOP? Assume for these purposes either Chuck Schumer or Mitch McConnell will lead the Senate, depending on your preference.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Democrats took the House four years ago and Mike Castle hasn't left the Republican House caucus. If Castle had decided to run as a Democrat last year Coons never would've run. Castle would've cleaned up on Democrats, indies, and Rinos with an easy win.
I believe that there a number of RINO voters that O'Donnell will never be able to get and she will peak with independents somewhere in the 40's. Even with the most optimistic GOP turn out and Castle supporters going to her she'd need to take independents 75%-25% to win a two way race.
In a 3 way race she could win with 70% of the Republican vote and 33% of the independent vote so long as the other votes broke in a good way.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe're making the mistake of confusing independents with centrist, as though these voters lie along a bell shaped curve between the Dems and Repubs. The fact is, theyr'e independent for a whole host of reasons and issues and are often just plain cranky, weird, and conspiratorial. On a number of items, namely voting for an insurgent, anti party-establishment candidate, theyr'e going to be very receptive to O'D, even if her views are not their own. But this year they probably are. Bottom line, Coons and Castle would be splitting the liberal-moderate establishment vote . Also, see my old friend Henry Olsen's piece at AEI External Link
laying out a rational sane case for her winning even without a write-in.
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