The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Team Carly Smells an Odor in the L.A. Times Poll


Martin Wilson, campaign manager of Carly Fiorina’s campaign for Senate in California, isn’t too worried about the Los Angeles Times poll.

The just-released poll by the Los Angeles Times is neither an accurate nor a reliable reflection of voter interest or likely participation in the upcoming election.  Simply put, the Times poll overestimates Democratic voter participation by a wide margin, hence it produced skewed results that are inconsistent with other public and private polling in this race, including the respected Field Poll released on Friday. Specifically, the poll’s sample indicates that self-identified Democrats will hold a 16.75 percent advantage over Republicans, which is at least double what other credible polls indicate. In addition to understating the Republican vote, its results are based on 9 percent participation of independent voters when, again, other pollsters estimate that at least 20 percent of the electorate will be comprised of swing voters.   

With such an errant sampling methodology, we are amazed that Boxer’s lead over Carly is not in the double digits as opposed to the eight-point advantage they are giving the incumbent. At this stage and in light of the dynamics of the race during the time this survey was in the field, that is a gap that can, and will, be bridged in the coming weeks.  

For 10 days, while this survey was being conducted, Barbara Boxer spent several million dollars on unanswered advertising mischaracterizing both her own record and Carly’s record. It is notable that, despite this, Barbara Boxer was unable to increase her standing with voters in the Field Poll. We are now answering back with the launch of our advertising campaign just 72 hours ago, after both the Times and Field polls had been completed. As this campaign moves forward and as voters become aware of the facts about Barbara Boxer, the hyper-partisan career politician, the dynamics in this race will change quickly.

Tags: Barbara Boxer , Carly Fiorina


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