The NRCC releases a bunch of their internal polls:
-
In Arizona’s 1st District, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick trails Republican Paul Gosar by 3 points, 45-42.
-
In Arizona’s 5th District, Democrat Harry Mitchell trails Republican David Schweikert by 1 point, 45-44.
-
In Colorado’s 3rd District, Democrat John Salazar is tied with Republican Scott Tipton, 45-45.
-
In Florida’s 24th District, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas trails Republican Sandy Adams by 10 points, 49-39.
-
In Maryland’s 1st District, Democrat Frank Kratovil trails Republican Andy Harris by 4 points, 43-39.
-
In Oregon’s 5th District, Democrat Kurt Schrader trails Republican Scott Bruun by 1 point, 45-44.
-
In Virginia’s 2nd District, Democrat Glenn Nye trails Republican Scott Rigell by 5 points, 45-40.
None of these are done deals, obviously. But each of these Republicans can feel pretty good at this point.
why aren't we closing these races yet? I just wish a lot our challengers were close to 50%
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDLD17 - the trends are still in the right direction. The Republican's aren't necessarily surging ahead so much as the Democrats are hemorrhaging. In VA-02, for example, both candidates had been kinda even in the polls, and even though Rigell seems to have declined a little bit, Nye has declined a lot.
In some of these races, the Republicans may be somewhat close to their ceiling of support (OR-05 is a D+1 district for example), which is why their numbers aren't climbing much higher. They might still get a big bump if conservative-leaning independents show up on election day and liberal-leaning independents stay home, but I think pollsters are (justifiably) wary about assuming too much this early.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse