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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

N.C. Democrat Mike McIntrye Should Expect Some Post-Lunch Indigestion



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I am told that the Civitas Institute, located in Raleigh, North Carolina, will release a poll from the state’s 7th Congressional District today that will have incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre and GOP challenger Ilario Pantano ”very, very close.”

I expect it to hit right after lunch.

UPDATE: McIntyre 45, Pantano 46*.

One of my readers observes, “Internals are interesting – the respondent split is 28 percent Republican, 44 percent Democrat, 27 percent independent. It says 84 percent of Pantano voters are “certain” to vote, whereas only 57 percent of McIntyre voters are “certain” to vote.  Pantano is also getting 11 percent of Democrats, while McIntyre is only getting 3 percent of Republicans.  This is all in a district that has been Dem for a century.  McIntyre won 69 percent to 31 percent in 2008.”

* I had these numbers reversed; it’s only a point, but I’ll bet its a psychological big deal to each campaign.


Tags: Ilario Pantano , Mike McIntyre


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