An interesting new rule of thumb from Nate Silver:
Senate candidates who have a lead of between 6 and 9 points in the simple polling average, with 30 days to go until the election — about where Mr. Toomey’s lead stands now — are undefeated since 1998.
That is a fantastic way of looking at things for Pat Toomey, as well as for Roy Blunt in Missouri, Rand Paul in Kentucky, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Marco Rubio in Florida, and Dan Coats in Indiana.
Oh, and John Boozman in Arkansas, John Hoeven in North Dakota, and incumbents Richard Burr in North Carolina and David Vitter in Louisiana, but . . . come on. Those races have been effectively over for a while.
It’s ominous news for Carly Fiorina in California and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. As for the rest of the big Senate races — Nevada, Washington, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, and West Virginia . . . well, we’ll have to wait and see.
Burr is in North Carolina, not North Dakota.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLets not forget the Scott Brown phenomenon and the Odonnel phenomenon or the John Miller phenomenon (both primaries) where all three were down in the polls a mere few days before elections. Things are only worse today economically (and for dems) than in Jan 2010 or earlier this year.
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Brown was basically unopposed in his primary and the senate race was a special election which can be very different from a normal election. But I understand where you are going. This isn't a normal election, this is a wave election and by all indications it will be one of the largest waves, if not the largest ever.
I don't think Bab's boxer is safe at all.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBrown was in a special election, which are difficult to poll. There really wasn't a poll until about three weeks before anyway. O'Donnell and Miller were in underpolled primaries. Because it's one party, they are usually predicted with less accuracy. On the other hand, general elections in November have a higher turn-out and lots of historical data. Silver examines those when making his pronouncement. He does, however, omit Jim Webb's comeback.
I think NY or DE were ever really in play and CA may be lost. I'm questionable on CT. That leaves only 10 possibles.
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