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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

More House Polls Show Good News for GOP in New York, Illinois, and Connecticut



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The dam bursts.

It has burst in Connecticut:

U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has fallen behind Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri according to the CT Capitol Report Poll released today.

Rep. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district, has 44.3 percent to Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri’s 49.7 percent. The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman River Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they will support in the race.

“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says the poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey. While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to comeback after falling behind a challenger in the last month.

It has burst in Illinois, where Randy Hultgren is ahead, 44 percent to 38 percent.

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings to the Randy Hultgren for Congress campaign: The Tarrance Group was commissioned to conduct a telephone survey of N=400 registered “likely” voters throughout Illinois’ Fourteenth Congressional District. Arandom sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered October 3-4, 2010. Republican challenger Randy Hultgren’s lead has grown to 6 points in his race against incumbent Democrat Bill Foster. Since our previous survey in September, Hultgren has increased his lead on the ballot from 3 points to 6 points. Turnout modeling suggests that Hultgren would receive 50% of the vote if the election were held today — even with third party candidate on the ballot.

It has burst in New York.

I received this ccAdvertising poll data from a Conservative/GOP consultant, and, considering the history of this firm, suggest you take it with a healthy dose of salt.

The results show three of the eight the competitive NY House races to be very close indeed. In at least one of these districts, NY-24, public polling has shown the incumbent, Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, to be in better shape, leading his GOP opponent, Richard Hanna, by eight percentage points, but under the “magic” 50 percent mark.

This poll shows Republican Nan Hayworth slightly ahead of her Democratic target, Rep. John Hall. Party leaders have grown increasingly concerned about Hall, particularly when it comes to his fundraising, and sent in former President Bill Clinton to help boost his numbers.

The third poll that the article refers to shows a tie between Randy Altschuler and Democrat Tim Bishop.

Sure, some of these polls were commissioned by Republicans. Is it possible the sampling is a little too optimistic? Sure. But unless there is a Research2000 situation, they’re actual polls representing a reasonable sense of turnout in these districts. At worst, these races are competitive for Republicans.

Onward.


Tags: Nan Hayworth , Randy Altschuler , Randy Hultgren , Richard Hanna , Sam Caligiuri


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