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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Let the Friday Afternoon News Dump Commence



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I will be in transit much of the day, heading to Texas, where everything is bigger.

Thankfully, no big, dramatic news breaks on a Friday afternoon three and a half weeks before Election Day.

UPDATE: The first bit of news, while I’m getting ready to depart: Charlie Cook moves a whole bunch of races with endangered Democratic incumbents from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick.

CO-04: Betsy Markey.

FL-08: Alan Grayson. (Booyah!)

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas.

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson.

OH-01: Steve Driehaus.

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy.

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper.

TX-17: Chet Edwards. Good night, Chet.

VA-02: Glenn Nye.

VA-05: Tom Perriello.

WI-08: Steve Kagen.

UPDATE TWO: I’m wondering why these poll results have been left on a shelf for a month, but they suggest that an upset in Pennsylvania’s 13th district isn’t that unthinkable. Higher margin of error and lower sample size than I would prefer, but here it is . . .

Huntingdon Valley, PA, October 7, 2010—In a poll conducted by Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies, it was revealed that the PA 13th Congressional Seat held by incumbent Democrat Rep. Allyson Schwartz is not “Safe” as many have predicted. In a summary memo, Neil Newhouse said, “Forget the Democrat registration edge here, voters in this district are leaning toward the GOP candidate in the November election by a 44%-42% margin, with even 27% of Democrats supporting a ‘checks-and-balances’ Republican. Voters here are clearly looking for a change.”

The poll demonstrated that voters are divided on whether Schwartz deserves re-election. Her re-elect support is at 41% while 37% say it is time to give a new person a chance. After a brief introduction to Adcock, and voters understood Adcock is a credible alternative to Rep. Schwartz and he wants to pull in the reins on Washington’s overspending, he moves ahead on the ballot by a 40%-39% margin. When voters hear where Adcock and Schwartz stand on the issues Adcock wins.

About the Survey:

The survey of likely voters, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, in Pennsylvania’s 13th Congressional District on behalf of the Dee Adcock campaign. The survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2010 among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.


Tags: Something Lighter


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