Sometimes, you can see a campaign shift on an issue that strikes you as wildly obscure, unimportant, and irrelevant.
Are Californians really going to elect a liberal fossil as governor because Meg Whitman’s maid pulled a publicity stunt with Gloria Allred?
Well, this morning Rasmussen puts Jerry Brown ahead by 6.
Are West Virginians really going to send another Democrat to the Senate because a firm hired by the NRSC looked for “hicky” actors?
Well, this morning Marshall University puts Joe Manchin ahead by 10.
One of the reasons Democrats thrive is that when they run a place for a long time — think the East Coast’s big cities, or New Jersey until 2009, or California (at least the state legislature) — they tend to enact policies that drive out those who oppose them. Some will object to counterproductive liberal policies at the ballot box, but many others will vote with their feet. Why do Democrats run Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, Detroit? Because their policies have driven most who demand better out to the suburbs.
If these electorates really do make their decisions based on housekeepers and casting calls . . . those states will deserve what they get.
WV and CA are goners. I just don't see any landslide election coming. When was the last Senate poll that came out that made you really take notice? Is ANY GOP Senate candidate surging?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe people of California and West Virginia will get the representation they deserve and asked for and the consequences will be theirs to bear. If they choose to ignore the handwriting on the wall and vote the way they always vote regardless of the consequences, then they shouldn't expect bailouts from those of us who did not ignore the handwriting on the wall.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRealclearpolitics note the firm which did wv poll is Dem Polling firm Marshall Univ/Orion Strategies (D)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSounds like sour grapes to me.
California and West Virginia are states that will take a great candidate running a nearly flawless campaign to break the D stronghold. It is a shame that the NRSC has blown it in West Virginia where there was a once in a generation opportunity. To claim that anyone that votes for Joe Manchin "will deserve what they get" seems a bit far fetched. He is running like a conservative Republican in a conservative Democrat state.
The worst thing about this is that Joe Manchin may save a Democrat Senate. The Dem's are positioning the race such that holding on to the Senate will be a win or at least dodging the bullet. Six months ago a 51/49 split was unimaginable.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCalifornia needs Meg Whitman, along with the entire ebay business model. Just imagine how many red dots California state government would have on its feedback page right now, if it had one. They'd be a "no longer a registered user" ten years ago.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJerry Brown is also riding a nostalgia wave... the 1970s are perceived as a time when the Golden State was still "golden," and middle-aged voters are responding to that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't buy the WV poll for one second. First of all, it's a democrat poll. Secondly, it's conducted over the same timeframe - roughly - as 3 other polls that show the race +- 3%. It's a complete outlier. I'll take Rasmussen's polling anyday and he has the most recent poll, with Manchin down 3%.
Unfortunately, I do think California is lost.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI hope and believe that the West Virginia poll, in particular, is an outlier, and that both races are essentially neck-and-neck, with the GOP in the slightly better position in West Virginia, and the Democrat slightly ahead in California.
As for evidence of the coming 'wave' election, look at the House races.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI continue to marvel that CT stubbornly holds onto the democrats as well. Chris Dodd is now forgotten and the current governor is a republican, arguably not a RINO.
The dem candidate for governor remains several frozen points ahead and likewise Linda McMahon can't seem to seal the deal.
After months of Joe Courtney bragging how he stood up to both parties (why, he voted against the stimulus) his challenger is finally running ads, at least I saw one last night. It's night a good sign that I can't remember her name. Peckinpah is it?
Since I am stuck in CT a few more years this is all very depressing.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't even bother with the Marshall/Orien poll. The Orien pollster is running the campaign for a dem congressman in WV. It's in his interest to skew the poll. On top of that where are his poll questions and demographic breakdown? He doesn't have them up. Even PPP's earlier skewed WV poll had the demographics and questions. PPPs poll was 55% dem and something like 29% republican with 9% black in a state with 3.7% black population total but at least it published them--Orien/Marshall? Not so much. I think they polled the Marshall faculty.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy wife a first grade teacher in a public school, a life long Republican as am I, just received a mailer from Meg essentially saying she was going to cut teacher's salaries and fire teachers. Who do you think she is going to vote for now? (Too bad for my wife she's not in the police officers union then she'd be able to buy protection from Meg.)
As my wife put it, we just had one really rich guy as governor who did his best to advance the agenda of the super rich, (Coke machines out of high schools, gay marriage, fetal stem cell research, global warming, boy that's what our governor should be worrying about.) while unilaterally cutting the salaries of lower middle class state employees who assumed a contract was a contract. We don't need another super rich person advancing the agenda of the rich on the backs of working people. Let the rich pay for their own agenda.
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