The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Are Pennsylvania Democrats Suddenly Waking Up?


The sample in the last poll in Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling before today: 46 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican, 9 percent independent/other.

The sample in the new poll in Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling from today: 48 percent Democrat, 41 percent Republican, 11 percent independent/other.

Headline from Public Policy Polling: “The race for Senate in Pennsylvania has seen dramatic movement over the last two months and Joe Sestak has now taken the slightest lead over Pat Toomey, 46-45. On PPP’s previous survey of the state, in mid-August, Toomey led by a 45-36 margin.”

Why, it’s almost as if a more heavily Democratic sample dramatically alters the results!

PPP says they see an enormous awakening among Democrats, worth 5 percent in the past two months. We’ll see.

UPDATE: For perspective:

The 2004 exit poll in Pennsylvania: 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent independent.

The 2006 exit poll in Pennsylvania: 43 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 19 percent independent.

In 2008, the exit polls in this state split 44 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican, 18 percent independent.

Tags: Joe Sestak , Pat Toomey


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