Panic! Panic! A second poll has Pat Toomey trailing in Pennsylvania!
Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.
. . . It’s hard to explain Sestak’s latest apparent comeback. There’s a sense that faithful Democrats are paying closer attention in the closing weeks as President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country making the case for keeping Democrats in charge.And Sestak’s campaign appears adept at using an opponent’s own words against him in political TV ads. On air now is a commercial showing Toomey, a former Lehigh Valley congressman, saying his voting record is “hard to distinguish from Rick Santorum’s.”
Oh, and in Ohio . . .
Republican Rob Portman heads into the home stretch with a 55 – 34 percent likely voter lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds Portman’s lead statistically unchanged from his leads of 55 – 35 percent September 17 and 55 – 36 percent October 6.
“Given that Lt. Gov. Fisher has been trailing Portman by roughly 20 points since the fall campaign got underway, there’s not much reason to think he can close that gap appreciably in the final two weeks of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Other than self-identified Democrats, it is hard to find a demographic group that supports Fisher.”
PA won't be a blowout for us but I find it suspect that race has tightened this much
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI didn't see the polling sample for the PA poll. Perhaps I missed the internals, but a 10 point lead gone in a week? Huh?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's not just the PPP poll with it's goofy sample. The Muhlenberg poll just out shows Toomey losing by 3 and the sample was 46 Dem and 46 Rep, so something is going on and it's not good.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat Pennsylvania poll shows a sample that is 46D, 46R, 8I. Which seems odd for any number of reasons. I know that the conventional wisdom is that independents don't come out for midterms in the same number as in presidential years, but in 2006 exit polls showed that independents made up 20% of the Pennsylvania electorate. Are they really expecting that kind of difference from 2006 to 2010?
And for a 3-day tracking poll, the sample size seems awfully small (403 likely voters), leaving a rather large 5-point MoE.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI expect to see a lot of polls in the next few days showing Democrats gaining; the media need to convince the Democrat base to turn out by telling them they have a shot, and they need to depress the Republican base.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, the fact that two polls now show Toomey trailing is extremely worrying, especially when one adds in the additional datum that the voting process in Philadelphia is not exactly a model of good democracy.
But what a strange change in just a week, with no obvious Toomey gaff to point to.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBah! Like Huey says, Rasmussen had it Toomey 49% Sestak 39% just 6 days ago. A 14 pt swing in a week? BS.
I'd say both these polls are indicators of tightening, as DLD17 writes, but that's to be expected. Toomey will win.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat might be happening is that the polling is exaggarating the 'bouncing effect' that had been mentioned earlier on the site as what you would expect to see. Pat Toomey's lead over Joe Sestak has been surprisingly consistent over the last couple months, and surprisingly stable. If anything, the polls are finally looking 'normal'.
Also, I would like to see the poll numbers in the PA governor's race right now. Tom Corbett has always had a slightly wider lead over Dan Onorato than Toomey did over Sestak. But they have much closer together than in Ohio, where Portman is trouncing Fisher regardless of how close the governor's race is. If the PA governor race is about that tight, then the polls might be on to something on the election. If they remain roughly the same, we might on to something about the polls.
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