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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

The Hill’s Polls Mostly Confirm What We Thought We Knew



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None of the new House polls released by The Hill are all that surprising; for Republicans, a few results are reassuring, a few are disappointing.

Ranking the news from good to bad . . .

  • IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 45, Phil Hare (D) 38
  • MS-1: Alan Nunnelee (R) 44, Travis Childers (D) 39
  • NH-1: Frank Guinta (R) 47, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 42
  • AZ-5: David Schweikart (R) 45, Harry Mitchell (D) 42
  • WI-8: Reid Ribble (R) 45, Steve Kagen (D) 44
  • IL-14: Randy Hultgren (R) 43, Bill Foster (D) 42
  • NY-19: Nan Hayworth (R) 43, John Hall (D) 43
  • PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 41, Chris Carney (D) 41
  • PA-8: Patrick Murphy (D) 46, Michael Fitzpatrick (R)  43
  • NY-24: Michael Arcuri (D) 47, Richard Hanna (R) 37

Having said that, none of these incumbents have particularly healthy numbers, other than maybe Arcuri. (Once again, I find myself wondering if these New York state House races would look different if any one of the big three statewide races were even remotely competitive.)

Also, this morning Survey USA is out with a poll of Oregon’s 1st district, putting incumbent Democrat David Wu up 9 over Rob Cornilles. Wu will probably win by a much narrower margin than usual, but in a D+8 district where Wu’s share of the vote is usually in the high 50s or 60s, he’s got some cushion.


Tags: Alan Nunnelee , Bobby Schilling , David Schweikart , Frank Guinta , Reid Ribble


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