Let’s look back at last cycle, focusing on Senate incumbents who were washed out with the wave . . .
NC: Elizabeth Dole’s totals in the last few polls: 46, 45, 46, 43.
Elizabeth Dole’s final result: 44.2 percent.
OR: Gordon Smith’s totals in the last few polls: 40, 42, 42, 46.
Gordon Smith’s final result: 42.5 percent.
AK: Ted Stevens’s totals in the last few polls: 46, 45, 44. (I’m not counting a Research 2000 one, for obvious reasons.)
Ted Stevens’s final result: 46.5 percent.
Now let’s go back to 2006.
OH: Mike DeWine’s totals in the last few polls: 42, 44, 44, 42.
Mike DeWine’s final result: 43.3 percent.
PA: Rick Santorum’s totals in the last few polls: 39, 40, 43, 39.
Rick Santorum’s final result: 41 percent.
VA: George Allen’s totals in the last few polls: 49, 45, 44, 44.
George Allen’s final result: 49.3.
Here and there, you could find an incumbent finishing a little better than the polls suggested; Conrad Burns finished 3 percentage points higher than the RCP average; Jim Talent finished 1.2 percent higher.
This would appear to confirm a gut-level suspicion we have, that an incumbent in the mid-40s or lower swimming against a tide tends to finish right around that final poll level; the undecideds split between the challenger and third-party options.
With that in mind:
CA: Barbara Boxer’s totals in the last few polls: 46, 43, 48, 46.
NV: Harry Reid’s totals in the last few polls: 47, 46, 46, 47.
CO: Michael Bennet’s totals in the past few polls: 46, 45, 45, 45.
WA: Patty Murray’s totals in the last few polls: 50, 49, 48, 49.
Of course, there’s still 13 days for these poll numbers to change . . .
Add in Feingold in Wisconsin: 47, 45, 44, 44, 42, 45.
Not really worth rubbing Blanche Lincoln's nose in her dismal poll numbers (since January, the only polls in which she has even gotten to 40 were Research 2000 polls).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMany thanks for such an informative posting.
Elections are well under way in many areas. Information on where early voting occurs might also be helpful in assessing all of this as well. I know Washington ballots are out and it's a matter of people mailing them in. Early voting is underway in North Carolina as well and from newspaper it is male Republicans who are dominating the early voting. The reason I bring this up is: I'm not sure at all that the last 13 days will make that much of a difference in the end.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou should include the challenger's number. If the challenger went up by 5 points, while the incumbent stayed the same you're on to something.
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