I mentioned on Twitter the sense that GOP momentum in the House races is still roaring along, while it is stalled in the Senate races (and perhaps the gubernatorial ones). There are a couple of possible reasons for this; a strong possibility is that the Democratic base’s awakening and energizing will be a bigger deal in states than in the red and purple districts. Philadelphia Democrats getting energized helps Joe Sestak; it doesn’t do much for other endangered Pennsylvania Democrats like Kathy Dahlkemper or Paul Kanjorski.
Here’s one more interesting indicator coming my way:
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of an autodial survey of likely general election voters in New York’s Twenty-Second Congressional District. The interviews were conducted October 19th, 2010.
This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 2.89% at the 95 percent confidence interval.This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.
If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were George Phillips, Republican, or Maurice Hinchey, Democrat?
Maurice Hinchey …………………………………………………………… 43.2%
George Phillips ……………………………………………………………… 43.2%
Wow - that is a shocker!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt shouldn't be - American Crossroads (i.e. Rove/Gillespie) announced last week that they were going on air with $250K of advertising in NY-22.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI used to live in NY-22. Hinchey is absolutely awful but benefits from one of the most absurdly drawn districts in the state - one that meanders from the Hudson River along Rt-17 to Binghamton before a small finger reaches north to the People's Republic of Ithaca (where they've had socialist mayors and it's not uncommon for Greens to win city council races). Most of that territory is actually pretty Republican. Hinchey probably survives by playing to the absolutely off-the-deep-end crazies that inhabit Ithaca and driving up turnout amongst the lefty population there (even the locals are well left of center - to say nothing of the university faculty members and students who vote there).
Even this year it will be a tough road - but it is certainly doable - if the more Republican areas of the district are fired up and some of the less committed Democrats are indifferent, it could be enough. We can hope - Hinchey is an embarrassment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy (completely uneducated) sense is not that Senate and Gov races are "stalled out", it's that the news cycle is all O'Donnell and Fiorina and Paladino, all the time. The Dem strategy is obviously to make these more fringe candidates (not that Fiorina is fringe, but you get my drift) the face of the GOP. The traditional media outlets are following dutifully along. I firmly believe when the dust settles, the big story of this election will be the dark horses and the little talked about candidates. I also don't think Toomey is in any danger of losing.
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