The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Life, and Unseating Incumbents, Ain’t Easy for a Boy Named Fran


I had not had Fran Becker’s bid against incumbent Democrat Carolyn McCarthy in New York’s 4th congressional district on my list of competitive races. McCarthy has won 63 percent or more of the vote the past three cycles; it’s a D+6 district where Obama won 58 percent.

But maybe there’s something going on there.

The McLaughlin & Associates poll memo I obtained surveyed 300 likely voters on Wednesday and shows McCarthy and Becker in a statistical 46% to 45% tie, with 9% undecided. It also says Becker has gained a whopping 20 points since June, while McCarthy’s number remains unchanged.

Becker has a new ad out:

And now my readers say they’re seeing attack ads hitting Becker. Could McCarthy be worried? It’s not like Becker can count on much top-of-the-ticket help . . .

Tags: Carolyn McCarthy , Fran Becker


Sign up for free NRO e-mails today:

Subscribe to National Review