One of my readers, Charlie, takes a look at the early voting numbers from 2008 and compares them to the early voting numbers in 2010, or at least so far.
He finds, “in every state where there is partisan split data for both years, the Republicans have gained in early voting.” The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)
Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.
Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.
Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.
Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.
North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.
In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.
“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes.
Big number here in Louisiana. I wonder if Ye Olde Moratorium is energizing the base this go 'round? (That may have been rhetorical.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThese results are scary for Dimmicrats for an added reason, that a lot of republicans are picking up a percentage of democrats which is also a bigger pool of voters.Looking at Clark county LV tells me that the republicans are only a few thousand in absolute terms or republican ballots behind the democrats..but if Angle picks up 15% of the democratic vote, Harry is cooked in Clark county, which means utter toast in the state...I Hope I hope I hope..
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe relevant comparison is 2006, not 2008. Democratic turnout always diminishes in off-year elections. Compare to 2006, and you may get an indication of relative success.
If you can't do that, compare turnout to 2008 but only in light of registration changes. If voter registration in Nevada has gotten more Republican by 7%, then the increase is less impressive. If it has held steady, or gotten more Democratic, then the stats vs 2008 suggest a stronger Republican turnout than in 2008. But if Obama carried Nevada by 15%, then a gain of 7 - 11% is not hopeful.
So your correspondent needs to provide more data to get a true picture of what these results portend.
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