The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

We’re Gallup-ing Slightly Slower Now


Here comes the Democrats’ comeback!

Well, sort of:

Republicans remain in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week’s midterm elections, although Democrats are doing slightly better now than they were early in October. Gallup’s latest two-week average on its generic ballot for Congress shows Republicans retaining a 48% to 44% margin among all registered voters, a 52% to 43% margin among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario, and a 55% to 41% margin in a low-turnout scenario. These likely voter advantages for the Republicans are slightly smaller than in previous weeks, reflecting in particular increased Democratic strength over the most recent days of interviewing…

Gallup’s statistical estimates based on historical U.S. House-vote data by party suggest that the Republicans need a 52% share of the two-party national House vote to be in a position to win control of the House.

Independent likely voters remain substantially more likely to support the GOP candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate. However, the Republican margin among independents has narrowed. Independents who are likely voters have moved from giving Republicans a 25-point advantage in late September/early October to a 15-point margin today. Under a low-turnout scenario, the Republican margin among independents has dropped from 29 points to 23 points.

Just remember, in October 1994, the generic ballot split, 47–47. In October 2002, Democrats led, 49 percent to 43 percent, and that turned out to be a pretty good midterm for the GOP.

Tags: Generic Ballot


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