In New York’s 20th congressional district, Siena finds a huge late surge for one of the candidates we’ve urged you to help:
Entering the final week of the campaign, Republican Chris Gibson has reversed an early campaign deficit and turned it into a 51-42 percent lead over Democratic Representative Scott Murphy, who is seeking his first re-election, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Gibson has become much more known to voters over the last six weeks, with a positive three-to-two favorability rating. Murphy remains known to more voters, however, they are evenly divided between those who view him favorably and those who view him unfavorably.
“Chris Gibson has completely erased a 17-point deficit and now takes a strong nine-point lead into the final week of the campaign against incumbent Scott Murphy,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Republican voters have come home to Gibson. He had led by only 27 points and now leads by nearly 60 points among Republicans. He has also won over independents, who had previously sided with Murphy by a nearly two-to-one margin, and now give Gibson a seven-point lead.
In other House polls today, Kristi Noem is up by 2 over Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in South Dakota, Daniel Webster is up by 7 over Alan Grayson in Florida, Andy Vidak is up 10 on Jim Costa in California, and Republican Raul Labrador is within 3 of incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick in a heavily Republican district in Idaho.
You know what this means, right? It means Jay Cost is being bombarded with gamma rays. JAY COST ANGRY! JAY COST SMASH!
As we head into counting on election night, these races all are in the states that close their polls at 7 PM.
If we envision the beach with various sand castles lined up in straight lines at various parts of the beach, if the water hits the first line it will mean X number of house seats to the GOP.
Below are four early polled races and what they likely tell us about the GOP wave:
Leans GOP -- SC-5 / IN-9 -- GOP will win the house ... 40+ seat gain
Tossup -- GA-2 / GA-8 / KY6 -- Looking at a 55 to 75 seat gain
Leans Dem -- KY-3 ... looking at a gain of 75 to 90 seats
Likely Dem ... GA-12 looking at a gain of 90 to 120 seats
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis means that the moribund NYGOP is in a position to go +9 in House races (CDs 1, 13, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29). As of right now RCP has 20, 22, and 24 as Lean D; 1, 13, and 25 as Toss Ups; 19 and 23 as Lean R; and 29 as Likely R. This does not include two seats that they have shifted to Likely D that were on nobody's lists (the 2nd (Steve Israel) and 4th (Carolyn McCarthey) - both on Long Island).
Combine that with what is going on in both Pennsylvania and Ohio (RCP has another 9 Democrat held seats in those two states leaning or likely R, plus another 3 as tossups and 2 as lean D) and those three states could get the GOP nearly half way to the majority all on their own.
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