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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

One More Once-Trailing Republican Pulls Ahead



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I believe for the first time, a poll has found Republican Morgan Griffith leading 15-term incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher in Virginia’s 9th district.

A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.

In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it’s Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith’s lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.

Among traditional midterm voters — those who vote in most or all congressional elections — Boucher is nominally ahead, by 3 to 5 points. But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1. The relative sizes of these groups will determine the winner. If the uniquely motivated 2010 voters walk-the-ballot-box walk, and don’t just talk-the-pollster talk, the Republicans have a chance to snatch the seat. If the uniquely motivated voters aren’t so motivated after all, Boucher keeps the seat.

In related news, Jay Cost’s eyes just turned green and he’s begging others to not make him angry.


Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher


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