The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Is Harry Reid Toast?


Number-Cruncher takes a look at Rasmussen’s latest in Nevada and comes to some ebullient and confident conclusions:

This race is over.

Angle being up 49-45 is a nice number but check out the voting tabs in Rasmussen ( from the premium side). Rasmussen’s voting tabs are 35-R, 39-D, and 26-I (D+4).  In looking at past exits the voting cross-tabs are:

2004 (Good GOP Year) 39-R-36-D-25I, (R+3)

2006 (Strong GOP Candidate in a Dem year) 40R-33-D-27-I (R+7)

In other words in a presidential election (in a very close race), the difference was +3R; that’s a 7 point swing!  In 2006, which while a good year for Dems, the Republicans had a solid incumbent (and the Democrats ran a Carter) the cross-tabs favored the GOP 40-33-27 (+7) which is an 11 point swing from what Rasmussen sampled.

I have begun looking at Rasmussen’s cross-tabs, and have found that his polling does not favor the GOP, and in fact might be underestimating support. I think the reason for this is the Tea Party/GOP affiliation disconnect.  Simply stated, those who go to the polls will be far more conservative in 2010 than 2004.  If this is where we are on Tuesday, this one won’t be close! To me this looks more like a 55-45 blowout!

Number-Cruncher’s a little too confident for my blood. I think a lot of Nevadans have nagging doubts about Angle. Having said that, take a look at Reid’s share of the vote in polls this month: 45, 47, 46, 48, 46, 47, 47, 46, 40, 46. That’s just above toasty. I think Reid gets about one or two more percentage points beyond his current RCP average of 45.7 (this was pretty much how Corzine did, and how I predicted Martha Coakley’s total on the nose). A 46.7 or 47.7 probably isn’t enough to win, unless “none of the above” or some third-party candidate does uncharacteristically well.

Tags: Harry Reid , Sharron Angle


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