Number-Cruncher takes a look at Rasmussen’s latest in Nevada and comes to some ebullient and confident conclusions:
This race is over.
Angle being up 49-45 is a nice number but check out the voting tabs in Rasmussen ( from the premium side). Rasmussen’s voting tabs are 35-R, 39-D, and 26-I (D+4). In looking at past exits the voting cross-tabs are:
2004 (Good GOP Year) 39-R-36-D-25I, (R+3)
2006 (Strong GOP Candidate in a Dem year) 40R-33-D-27-I (R+7)
In other words in a presidential election (in a very close race), the difference was +3R; that’s a 7 point swing! In 2006, which while a good year for Dems, the Republicans had a solid incumbent (and the Democrats ran a Carter) the cross-tabs favored the GOP 40-33-27 (+7) which is an 11 point swing from what Rasmussen sampled.
I have begun looking at Rasmussen’s cross-tabs, and have found that his polling does not favor the GOP, and in fact might be underestimating support. I think the reason for this is the Tea Party/GOP affiliation disconnect. Simply stated, those who go to the polls will be far more conservative in 2010 than 2004. If this is where we are on Tuesday, this one won’t be close! To me this looks more like a 55-45 blowout!
Number-Cruncher’s a little too confident for my blood. I think a lot of Nevadans have nagging doubts about Angle. Having said that, take a look at Reid’s share of the vote in polls this month: 45, 47, 46, 48, 46, 47, 47, 46, 40, 46. That’s just above toasty. I think Reid gets about one or two more percentage points beyond his current RCP average of 45.7 (this was pretty much how Corzine did, and how I predicted Martha Coakley’s total on the nose). A 46.7 or 47.7 probably isn’t enough to win, unless “none of the above” or some third-party candidate does uncharacteristically well.
Joy Behar hardest hit.
I had no doubt that Angle would win this race. She has run an excellent and aggressive campaign. She crushed Reid in the debate. Would not be surprised one bit if the final tally shows an Angle win in the double digits.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree N-C is overly confident, but he does have a point. I think we can agree that this year is not going to look like 2008 (the 2008 tabs are 38D, 30R, 32I (D+8)) though we can't all agree what exactly they will look like. But if Republicans outnumbered Democrats in both 2006 and 2004 in Nevada, I find it hard to believe that this year will see a 4-point Democrat advantage.
So N-C's overall point - that the sample is weighted in a way that seems to be more favorable to Democrats and therefore the Angle lead is all the more heartening - is probably correct. I don't expect a rout, but the polls are certainly making me feel more comfortable that Angle is in fact ahead and will in fact win this one next Tuesday.
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