You’ll recall Obi-Wan laid out four scenarios: the “Fading GOP Wave” Scenario, the “Okay Wave” Scenario, the “Happy Times Wave” Scenario, and the “Superwave.”
Judging by the latest round of House polls, the early voting numbers, the professional prognosticators’ sudden worry about traditionally rock-solid Democratic wins, and the apologetic ads from endangered House Democrats, six days out, this looks like at least the Okay Wave Scenario, probably the Happy Times Scenario, and Superwave cannot be ruled out (but doesn’t quite look likely).
There are spots of legitimate Republican disappointment. The statewide races in California and New York seem stubbornly immune to the national GOP wave (while some GOP House candidates are doing quite well in competitive districts in those blue states). Iowa is another state where some GOP challengers aren’t being carried along as well as elsewhere in the region. Joe Manchin may hang on in West Virginia, as well as Patty Murray in Washington. I think Joe Miller should be okay, but Alaska seems to feature a particularly inscrutable political landscape.
But beyond that, the GOP is looking good in every state and district that they ought to win, and quite a few they shouldn’t.
A lot of readers are wondering about party-switchers after Tuesday, but that’s very hard to project or assess until we know which, if any, conservative Democrats are left standing. Many may conclude that if they survived this year, they can survive anything, and they may have a point. Others may wonder if party-switching really would ensure any long-term career health; Parker Griffith and Arlen Specter learned you can embrace a new party, but your new party’s base may not embrace you.