I wasn’t terribly familiar with Hays Research, the pollster in Alaska that is offering the shocking news that Republican Joe Miller is plummeting in that state’s U.S. Senate race.
First, the idea that Joe Miller is in trouble doesn’t seem that implausible; he’s been dogged by a variety of odd stories and missteps — Tweets that suggested he had the race wrapped up, his security guards detaining a reporter, admitting misuse of work computers. None of these stories seem big enough to change the race by themselves, but the drip-drip-drip may be giving some voters some second thoughts about him.
But I’m a little wary of this pollster’s results. In 2008, Hays Research’s final poll in the Senate race between Democrat Mark Begich and incumbent Republican Ted Stevens had the race looking like a near-blowout: Begich 48.3 percent, Stevens 40 percent.
But on Election Day, Stevens fell just short, 46.5 percent to Begich’s 47.8 percent.
They also had the GOP presidential ticket with the current governor barely ahead: McCain-Palin at 46.6 percent, Obama-Biden at 43.9 percent.
On Election Day, McCain-Palin won easily with 59.4 percent of the vote, Obama-Biden took 37.8 percent.
So while it’s quite possible that Miller’s numbers have taken a tumble, I am skeptical that his circumstances are as dire as the Hays poll suggests.
Whether or not this benefits the write-in candidate, Lisxzqq Murkwrwfcvplski*, remains to be seen.
* For all Alaskan readers, this is the legal spelling of the incumbent senator’s name and should be used for all write-in ballots.
The poll is apparently of adults, not even registered voters, let alone likely voters. What the heck kind of outfit is polling adults at this point in the election cycle and not polling likely voters? Call me underwhelmed by this polling company.
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Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Lisxzqq Murkwrwfcvplski": made my laugh. Thanks.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere's too many Strait Ticket voters for a write in candidate to prevail.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Whether or not this benefits the write-in candidate, Lisxzqq Murkwrwfcvplski*, remains to be seen."
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I've asked this before: How accurately does the name of a write-in candidate have to be spelled?
If it's off by a letter - Lisa Murkoski - does that count as a vote for Lisa Murkowski?
How about several letters, but it sounds the same - Lisa Mirkouski?
Several letters but it sounds ALMOST the same - Lisa Mickowsky?
Several letters, but it sounds pretty much like it - Lisa Minowski?
Several letters, sounds something like it - Elise Murray?
What's the rule? Could this end up being the "hanging chad" issue of 2010?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHey if they miss by a letter, they are writing in a different person, whether a real person or not. Say there were several people running as write in's with similar names, one letter makes a difference. You have two D senators, one Reed (RI) and one Reid (NV). Say someone wrote in Reeid? Who would that vote be counted for if you are allowed to miss by one letter? Liza Mercowski lost the chance to have her name on the ballot by losing in the primary. Elections and primary elections have consequences.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTo Bernie: The name of a write-in candidate must be spelled perfectly in order to be counted. One wrong letter or two letters transposed and the ballot goes in the trash. Lisa Smith would have a much better chance of winning than Lisxzqq Murkwrwfcvplski.
I'm not paying much attention to polls that indicate trailing Democrats have miraculously surged ahead in the final days. I lived in California the first time Arnold ran for Governor and the polling for that race was less than admirable - and that's a kind assessment. The best Arnold did in the polls just prior to the election showed him in a dead heat with his popular Hispanic opponent. Arnold won by double digits. The exit polling was so bad for that race that exit polling data is no longer reported until after the polls have closed.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWith the Alaskan Supreme Court doing everything it can to assist write-in candidate incumbent Senator Eliza Manchewicz, who knows. But with Sarah Palin still popular in Alaska and actively campaigning for Miller, he's still got a great shot. (If voters get to the polls)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAlso, at the very bottom of the poll results, it says it was paid for by a local of the IBEW union.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI had 5 candidates I really wanted to prvail election night: Indiana 8th district(where I live) congress Dr.Larry Bucshon,IN. senate Coats though not crazy about him,previuously we had supported Ellsworth twice for 8th district congress because of his strong stance on illegal immigration but he has proven to be a Obama yes man,3.Rubio over sunshine Charlie,4.Angle over Reid please,lord please and Miller over the desperate clinger to power Lisa M. I'm getting worried about Miller I sure hope he can pull it out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI posted the following elsewhere, but it seems to fit pretty well:
To be serious, I can't imagine the legal fights we face up here over voter "intent" in the weeks ahead. There will likely be hundreds, if not thousands of votes marked "Lisa," for one, although I'm sure "Muh..., McK..., Mir... Ohthehellwithit" will be a strong runner-up.
The need to use the exact spelling will be important, in my view. Otherwise, how far off "Lisa Murkowski" will someone have to be before you can tell with a certainty that they didn't intend to vote for her? If someone just writes in "Murkowski," how do we know that the voter wasn't intending to vote for her father? Or if they just write "Lisa," which Lisa do they mean?- there are surely hundreds of Alaska residents named Lisa. Unfortunately, it's too late to make the application to become a "certified" write-in candidate (although a voter can vote for Donald Duck if he or she chooses, the Division of Elections has a certification process that apparently allows you to use the phrase "write-in candidate for..." in election advertising). If we'd been smart, we real Republicans (you know, the ones who believe that when a primary candidate makes a promise about respecting the will of the voters he or she should be held to it) would have certified ten or so other Lisas- hindsight is always 20-20.
D. Edgren
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJim Geraghty, you keep believing those polls you like so much.. I live in Alaska, and I know what we Alaskan's like and don't like, and we do NOT like Lisa Murkowski, and her arrogant elitist liberal RINO attitude and person, period.!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOnly Fools, are fooled twice, Mr. Jim Geraghty, and Alaskans do NOT like to be mad fools of, period.!!!
I wonder if Jim is paying attention to the Texas 27th? There is a poll out showing the republican challenger to be 8 points in the lead over the 28 year incumbent democrat.
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