I’m working on my final list of projected winners in the races. (Which races? All of them.)
One of the toughest ones was Renee Ellmers against the North Carolina Strangler, Rep. Bob Etheridge. My head said that a longtime incumbent, with plenty of resources, should be able to hang on by his fingernails, even against a challenger as appealing as Ellmers. My heart said no, she’s too good a candidate, and the district is too conservative to accept a guy who embarrassed himself with bizarre, confrontational behavior.
But now my heart has a poll to cite. Civitas hasn’t released it yet, but the headline is up already:
Civitas Poll: Ellmers Leads Etheridge Heading into Final Weekend
I’m picking Ellmers.
UPDATE: In case you hadn’t seen it:
Democratic incumbent Congressman Bob Etheridge’s electoral future appears to be in jeopardy as he trails Republican challenger Renee Ellmers by 5 percentage points with less than one week until the election.
According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.
Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers’ lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent.
YES! THANK you for posting this. I've been dying for some new info on this race. What's even more interesting is that Ellmers (at least last month) had close to $0 on hand. Etheridge, the "Who are you?" youth choker, has substantial reserves. His ads have been reprehensible. And yet he is in an R+ district.
I think he's toast.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNow if we can just get a poll for the Filner/Popaditch race in CA.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's really adds to the sweetness when you beat the arrogant ones like Etheridge, Boxer, Reid, et al. I hope Baron Hill gets humbled too.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe poll results are up on Civitas Institute. Check them out here: External Link
You'll like what you see Jim!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusewow, 46/41 among REGISTERED, not likely voters. Bye Bye Bob! Hope you like standing in line at the unemployment office along with 10% of America.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn The Force, trust always, young master Geraghty. Let you down, never it will. Defeat Etheridge, Ellmers will.
The Headline: Yoda Calls NC-2 for Ellmers!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHmm. I wonder.
The internals of the poll shows that 16% of African-Americans are for Ellmers (and 19% disapprove of Obama's job performance). That's fishy.
It shows that Cumberland county approves 55-40 of Obama's performance (which is in line with what I would expect), but that Etheridge leads by only 47-40 (which is less than I would expect).
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse