The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Gallup’s Final Generic Ballot Numbers: GOP 55, Democrats 40


Wow. Gallup’s final generic numbers are as good for Republicans and as bad for Democrats as we have seen this cycle:

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

I concur with this assessment from one of my regulars, a guy involved in GOP politics in a key region of a swing state:

Basically unchanged from last week. This means three (key) things:

A) Voters positions are locked in place;

B) Any Republican within 4 or 5 has a shot.

C) Either Gallup is wrong or the state by state polling is wrong.  There is no way Republicans fail to win the Senate if the differential is 10 points. That’s 6 higher than 1994.

Yeah, we’re really in uncharted territory here . . .

Tags: 2010 , Polling


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