Wow. Gallup’s final generic numbers are as good for Republicans and as bad for Democrats as we have seen this cycle:
The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
I concur with this assessment from one of my regulars, a guy involved in GOP politics in a key region of a swing state:
Basically unchanged from last week. This means three (key) things:
A) Voters positions are locked in place;
B) Any Republican within 4 or 5 has a shot.
C) Either Gallup is wrong or the state by state polling is wrong. There is no way Republicans fail to win the Senate if the differential is 10 points. That’s 6 higher than 1994.
Yeah, we’re really in uncharted territory here . . .
And yet the disconnect with Senate races remains. The latest PPP poll has WV lost as a pickup opportunity for the GOP...
Manchin 51%
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRaese 46%
Could it be that the state-by-state models are off? Gallup's model seems to be based on intensity, where the models and screens that the state polls use are based off past turnouts & voters. If there really are newly engaged voters in large numbers - Tea Partiers - voting this year none of them would make it past a likely voter screen and thus wouldn't be counted.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGallup is n friend of the GOP. What are the odds Gallup is cooking the numbers?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSean B--"Gallup is a friend of the GOP." Really? That's news to me.
Lizzie--Pollsters have been calling cellphones for a number of years now. This criticism is old.
mypalfish--Care to put your money where your mouth is on this one? Do you need time to check in with David Axelrod first?
Look at the history of Gallup. It is one of the best and most accurate pollsters with a long history. The number seems incredible, but I think Gallup is an excellent pollster. Someone point out a final preference poll in the last 40 years in which they were off by more than a point or 2?
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