One of the few close House races that I don’t have breaking the Republicans’ way is up in New Hampshire, where some of my regulars are a little disappointed with former GOP congressman Charlie Bass’s effort to retake his old seat. He’ll have a pretty strong wind at his back, but apparently his message isn’t as sharp as it could have been. The latest poll:
The latest WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Kuster with 43 percent, Bass with 40 percent and 3 percent for other candidates. Eleven percent remain undecided.
In the 1st District, Republican Frank Guinta is slightly ahead of incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Guinta has 46 percent, Shea-Porter 39 percent and 5 percent favor other candidates. Twelve percent are undecided.
The telephone poll of about 450 likely voters in each district was conducted Oct. 27-31 and had a margin of error of about 5 percentage points.
Jim, don't trust the WMUR/UHN poll. I'm not a huge fan of Bass but he's certainly far better than Kuster who is to the left of Pelosi on most issues.
Bass was on the radio in Boston (reaches most of NH) and was asked about the polling. He specifically mentioned that WMUR poll and how they over sampled D's. The district is the more D friendly of the two NH districts but its only a D+3. Check out the internals of the poll and they clearly over sampled D's. Their poll respondents have a slightly more than 50% favorable for obama. Yet Gallup had obama's approval statewide at 41% in July '10, do you think they go better since then? Bass isn't going to win by a ton but he'll win by 5 or so.
Bass also mentioned his internals had him up and he's in good shape. He was very relaxed.
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