There hasn’t been much shift in the early-voting numbers since the last update I posted; a percentage point or two shift since then.
All of the figures below are from the United States Elections Project at GMU as of this morning; it is important to remember we are discussing the registered party affiliation of early voters, not how they actually vote. Of course, it seems safe to presume that most Republicans will vote for the GOP candidate, and most registered Democrats will vote for the Democrat.
Colorado: Early voting in 2008: 37.7 percent Democrat, 35.9 percent GOP, 26.4 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 35.4 percent Democrat, 41.1 percent GOP, 23 percent independent.
Florida: Early voting in 2008: 45.6 percent Democrat, 37.3 percent Republican, 17.1 percent independent.
Early voting in 2010: 36.5 percent Democrat, 49.2 percent Republican, 14.3 percent independent.
Iowa: In 2008, early votes split 46.9 percent Democrat, 28.9 percent Republican, 24.2 percent other.
In 2010, it is 43.7 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 18.2 percent independent.
Louisiana: In 2008, the state’s early vote was 58 percent registered Democrats, 28.7 Republicans, and 13.3 percent other.
This year, so far, it is 46.7 percent Democrat, 42.3 percent Republican, 10.6 percent other.
African-Americans were 35.6 percent of early voters in 2008; this cycle, so far, they make up 21.3 percent.
Maine: In 2008, the early vote split 41.1 percent Democrat, 27.7 percent Republicans, 31.2 percent other/independent.
So far in 2010, it is 37.6 percent Democrat, 35.6 percent Republican, 24.9 percent independent.
Nevada: Clark and Washoe Counties break down their vote by party registration.
In 2008, Clark was 52 percent Democrat, 30.6 percent Republican, 17.4 percent other.
In 2010, it is 46.2 percent Democrat, 37.4 percent Republican, 16.4 percent independent.
In 2008, Washoe was 47.1 percent Democrat, 35.3 percent Republican, 17.5 percent other.
In 2010, Democrats are at 40.3 percent, Republicans lead with 44.7 percent, and independents are 15 percent.
North Carolina: Barack Obama shocked the nation by winning North Carolina in 2008, and he was helped by an early vote that split 51.4 percent Democrat, 30.2 percent Republican, 18.5 percent none or other. This year the N.C. early vote splits 46.4 percent Democrat, 36.4 percent Republican, 17 percent independent.
African-Americans were 26.5 percent of North Carolina’s early votes in 2008; they are 20.9 percent so far this year.
There have been no changes to the numbers in Pennsylvania (very small number of early voters, heavily GOP), West Virginia (good for Democrats), and Wyoming (good for GOP).
Rick Scott and Rivera are the happiest with these early numbers. Look for Marco to get over 50%
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou may want to revise your estimate on the race in NC 11 with Jeff Miller (Rep) and Heath Shuler (Dem). There have been lots of early ballots cast in that race.
"The heaviest voting so far has come in two of the state's closely watched congressional races. In the 11th District covering Western North Carolina, where Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler is trying to fend off Republican challenger Jeff Miller, more than 110,000 have already cast a ballot. The gap between parties in that race is narrow, with 41 percent of ballots coming from Republicans and 37 percent coming from Democrats.
"In the 7th District, where Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre faces Republican hopeful Ilario Pantano, registered Democrats hold a nine-point edge."
Story here
The point I'd make about NC registration is that there are lots of Democrats who will split their tickets so registration numbers is not a clear indication of how people vote.
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