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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

The Early-Voting News Is . . . No News, or Little New From a Week Ago.



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There hasn’t been much shift in the early-voting numbers since the last update I posted; a percentage point or two shift since then.

All of the figures below are from the United States Elections Project at GMU as of this morning; it is important to remember we are discussing the registered party affiliation of early voters, not how they actually vote. Of course, it seems safe to presume that most Republicans will vote for the GOP candidate, and most registered Democrats will vote for the Democrat.

Colorado: Early voting in 2008: 37.7 percent Democrat, 35.9 percent GOP, 26.4 percent independent.

Early voting in 2010: 35.4 percent Democrat, 41.1 percent GOP, 23 percent independent.

Florida: Early voting in 2008: 45.6 percent Democrat, 37.3 percent Republican, 17.1 percent independent.

Early voting in 2010: 36.5 percent Democrat, 49.2 percent Republican, 14.3 percent independent.

Iowa: In 2008, early votes split 46.9 percent Democrat, 28.9 percent Republican, 24.2 percent other.

In 2010, it is 43.7 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, 18.2 percent independent.

Louisiana: In 2008, the state’s early vote was 58 percent registered Democrats, 28.7 Republicans, and 13.3 percent other.

This year, so far, it is 46.7 percent Democrat, 42.3 percent Republican, 10.6 percent other.

African-Americans were 35.6 percent of early voters in 2008; this cycle, so far, they make up 21.3 percent.

Maine: In 2008, the early vote split 41.1 percent Democrat, 27.7 percent Republicans, 31.2 percent other/independent.

So far in 2010, it is 37.6 percent Democrat, 35.6 percent Republican, 24.9 percent independent.

Nevada: Clark and Washoe Counties break down their vote by party registration.

In 2008, Clark was 52 percent Democrat, 30.6 percent Republican, 17.4 percent other.

In 2010, it is 46.2 percent Democrat, 37.4 percent Republican, 16.4 percent independent.

In 2008, Washoe was 47.1 percent Democrat, 35.3 percent Republican, 17.5 percent other.

In 2010, Democrats are at 40.3 percent, Republicans lead with 44.7 percent, and independents are 15 percent.

North Carolina: Barack Obama shocked the nation by winning North Carolina in 2008, and he was helped by an early vote that split 51.4 percent Democrat, 30.2 percent Republican, 18.5 percent none or other. This year the N.C. early vote splits 46.4 percent Democrat, 36.4 percent Republican, 17 percent independent.

African-Americans were 26.5 percent of North Carolina’s early votes in 2008; they are 20.9 percent so far this year.

There have been no changes to the numbers in Pennsylvania (very small number of early voters, heavily GOP), West Virginia (good for Democrats), and Wyoming (good for GOP).


Tags: 2010


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