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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Where I Suspect the GOP Will Fall Short . . .



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My House picks are up; my thanks to the web guys for what I am certain was a formatting ordeal. I note the dark blue that is supposed to signify Democrat takeovers of GOP-held seats looks a lot like black on some of them.

In short, here are the six Democrats who I predict will win currently GOP-held House seats: Hulbard in Arizona’s 3rd district, Carney in Delaware, Garcia in Florida’s 25th district, Seals in Illinois’s 10th district, Richmond in Louisiana’s 2nd district, and Miles in Michigan’s 3rd district.

Why these seats? While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GOP win in any of them, it is candidate’s baggage in Arizona, sheer heavily-Democrat district demographics in Delaware, Illinois, and Louisiana, close polls and bad vibes in Florida, and random unexpected setback (with a bit of murmurs about a divided local party) for the GOP in Michigan.

Keep in mind, I have been wrong in the past, and could be wrong again.

But every once in a while, I’m on-the-nose . . .

UPDATE: The entire political world has spoken as one to tell me that by predicting a surprise GOP loss in Michigan’s 3rd district, I must be indeed be gargling with Maker’s Mark again.


Tags: House Republicans


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