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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Gallup: 2010 Enthusiasm Gap Is Roughly Double 1994, 2006



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Can you stand one more poll? Because Gallup offers one last doozy before the votes are counted:

Americans’ enthusiasm about voting exceeds the recent midterm election high set four years ago, with 50% of Americans and 53% of registered voters saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2010.

These results are based on the USA Today/Gallup final 2010 pre-election poll, conducted Oct. 28-31.

The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

The party with the advantage in enthusiasm has won the greater share of the national congressional vote, and gained seats in the House, each election year since Gallup began tracking voter enthusiasm in 1994.

Got that? “The largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points.” Roughly double 1994 or 2006! Either Gallup is way off, or we’re going to see epic Republican wins tonight.


Tags: 2010 , Polling


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