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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.


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Gallup: 2010 Enthusiasm Gap Is Roughly Double 1994, 2006

Can you stand one more poll? Because Gallup offers one last doozy before the votes are counted:

Americans’ enthusiasm about voting exceeds the recent midterm election high set four years ago, with 50% of Americans and 53% of registered voters saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2010.

These results are based on the USA Today/Gallup final 2010 pre-election poll, conducted Oct. 28-31.

The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

The party with the advantage in enthusiasm has won the greater share of the national congressional vote, and gained seats in the House, each election year since Gallup began tracking voter enthusiasm in 1994.

Got that? “The largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points.” Roughly double 1994 or 2006! Either Gallup is way off, or we’re going to see epic Republican wins tonight.

Tags: 2010, Polling

New on The Campaign Spot. . .


COMMENTS   6

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   11/02/10 13:10

Evel Knievel himself would be afraid to try to jump across a gap this big.

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   11/02/10 13:45

I'm stealing from another who commented at NRO, admittedly, but this will be an Extinction Level Event (ELE) for Democrats. After tonight Democrats will need to be added to the endangered species list. Today is what I call the K-Line boundary. It will leave a mark so deep and pervasive that it will be talked about in history classes 100 years from now.

Of course, Democrats will eventually make a comeback, but they may not be as liberal as they are now for a long time.

God, save the Republic!

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   11/02/10 14:19

It's foolish to think that this will be an ELE for the Democrats -- the same mistake that the Dems made in 2008. People are voting against the Dems this time, next time they may well be voting against the Republicans. People have had enough of business as usual in Washington.

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   11/02/10 14:23

Jim, You have to see this Field Poll in CA on voter turnout, it just turned all the polls there upside down. BTW, is Obi-wan breaking out the champagne yet?

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   11/02/10 14:23

It is sad a bit though, the sacrificial lambs are generally the Blue Dog, the Young, the New, and those in the "Great Moderates in History" category. WA's McDermott, CA Waters, NY Rangle, et al will still remain, but those are the ones most needed to be sent away.

Perhaps the wave will be big enough to have COD instead of the Marxist Coons. There is a lot to say about the "Most Electable Conservative"

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   11/02/10 14:28

November 2, 2010: ..., where once embattled tea partiers stood and cast the vote heard round the world.

No means No! Stop the spending!

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