Okay, I’m posting this with the insistence that everybody understand this for what it is: An exit poll, conducted by a college-associated polling institute (Muhlenberg), done from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. this morning in Pennsylvania:
Turnout: 47 percent Republican, 47 percent Democrat, 6 percent independent.
Senate: Pat Toomey (R) 51 percent, Joe Sestak (D) 47 percent
Governor: Tom Corbett (R) 55 percent, Dan Onorato (D) 43 percent
15th congressional district: Charlie Dent (R) 53 percent, John Callahan (D) 42 percent
Obviously, things can change in the midday, afternoon and evening votes . . .
A little odd in that you have an exit of 47-47.
2004 exits were 39-41-33,
2006 38-43-20,
2008-37-44-18.
While the spread is where I would expect it to be (2 points better than 2004), I think there are too many partisan and not enough Independent voters. PA is made up of 20% independent voters, and I'm not sure the GOP and DEM brands are as good today as they were in other years. While this is so-so news (Toomey is going to win but I think by more than 4);its likely not accurate.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA little odd in that you have an exit of 47-47.
2004 exits were 39-41-33,
2006 38-43-20,
2008-37-44-18.
While the spread is where I would expect it to be (2 points better than 2004), I think there are too many partisan and not enough Independent voters. PA is made up of 20% independent voters, and I'm not sure the GOP and DEM brands are as good today as they were in other years. While this is so-so news (Toomey is going to win but I think by more than 4);its likely not accurate.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuselive by the exit polls, die by them.
Which ones are reliable ? -- they were so bad 6 years ago.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseProbably self-identified by the way they voted, which means all the I's went to Toomey. I'll be curious to see what this outfit has later in the day.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, if this is affiliated with a college, I would expect them to have a Democratic bias. So these numbers may be a lot better than they sound.
When did the polls open, 7, or does PA open earlier? I still think Republicans are more likely to have voted already or vote after work tonight.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'll give exit polls today exactly as much weight as I gave them in 2004. None.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBoth Coons and Blumenthal worried about turnout. There's your superwave
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse2004 exits were 39-41-33
That would be very odd: 39+41+33 = 111%
Should that be 39-41-23?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA supermarket I frequent in mid-Fairfield County, CT is giving out free Italian bread this afternoon to anyone showing their "I Voted" sticker. As you can imagine, it's a pretty blue county (in more ways than one today) and the table of loaves looked pretty untouched.
(I can't help wonder if they were making a statement about bread lines...)
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