The remaining unresolved House elections, ordered by partisan advantage in the current vote count (Republicans listed second):
Jim Costa vs. Andy Vidak in California’s 20th district. GOP candidate leads by 1,823 votes.
Solomon Ortiz vs. Blake Farenthold in Texas’s 27th district. GOP candidate leads by 799 votes.
Dan Maffei vs. Ann Marie Buerkle in New York’s 25th district. GOP candidate leads by 659 votes.
Melissa Bean vs. Joe Walsh in Illinois’s 8th district. GOP candidate leads by 553 votes.
Jerry McNerney vs. David Harmer in California’s 11th district. GOP candidate trails by 121 votes.
Rick Larsen vs. John Koster in Washington’s 2nd district. GOP candidate trails by 507 votes.
Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6th district. GOP candidate trails by 600 votes.
Gerry Connolly vs. Keith Fimian in Virginia’s 11th district. GOP candidate trails by 920 votes.
Gabrielle Giffords vs. Jesse Kelly in Arizona’s 8th district. GOP candidate trails by 2,356 votes.
Raul Grijalva vs. Ruth McClung in Arizona’s 7th district. GOP candidate trails by 4,083 votes.
Adam Smith vs. Richard Muri in Washington’s 9th district. The AP has called this race for Smith, the incumbent Democrat, with a 12,000 vote margin, but only 77 percent of ballots have been counted.
Would it betray me as an unrepentant cynic if I said we're probably going to lose all of those because the margin of fraud, err, error is too close?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI got an e-mail from Jesse's mom last night--at that time the gap was 3000. So he's made up almost 700. Again at that time, 47,000 remained to be counted.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYep...unfortunately every single one of the Republican leads falls within the "margin of theft."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe top race on the list (California CD20) could come down to absentees and help the Dem win. There were about 60,000 regular votes cast and counted but about 30,000 more absentees from just two of the counties still yet to be counted. I'm not sure what the normal ratio is for absentee vs regular votes but it seems suspect!
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat would be interesting to correlate is the amount of outside the district, i.e. national, money that was spent in these close races. Did huge outside expenditures make a race closer than it would have otherwise been? I live in California across from the Grijalva v. McClung race, all our local T.V. stations are in that district, and we saw many more ads than in any previous election, for both sides. Makes you wonder if some contests are run just for the benefit of the consultants.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAll talk about fraud and theft aside (not because it's deluded, but because it's a given!), I wonder why the gap always seems to narrow in the Dem's favor in a recount. Is there a single instance in the recent past in which the gap narrowed in the other direction or widened for he leading Republican? My theory is that, less than fraud and conspiracy, the Democrat party is the party of incompetents: folks so clueless they cannot even fill out a ballot properly and need someone else to figure out what they really meant to do. The majority of them really, REALLY wanted to vote Dem--they just didn't know how.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLooks like Connolly will survive, but he's livng on borrowed time from now on. The Dems in the state senate aren't going to go to bat to save him (they are far more worried about protecting their own slim majority vs huge gains in GOP areas of northern VA) so they'll take his best precincts and put them in Jim the Moron's 8th district and add heavily GOP precints from Prince William & Loudoun Counties. Connelly may hope to survive in'12 with another strong showing from Obama in N.VA, but it looks more and more like Senator Webb will either become SECDEF (to replace Gates) or will retire (he has made it very clear he hates the Senate and has raised no money. This would open up a chance for Connelly to try to carry the Dem banner vs likely GOP candidate George Allen.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAndy Barr KY-6:
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePaper ballots are used in the rural areas of our district, and there are serious issues with those results. A re-canvas of the district has begun with a possible recount to begin late next week. Fingers crossed!
If we can get even one out of the nine, we'll be ahead of the game. Of course, there may be some ammo for investigations later. But I stick with my statement earlier, that any election which can be stolen, will be.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt may be pedantic of me, but the headline says ten races, but you list eleven...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBob "Who are you?" Etheridge in NC's 2nd District is suddenly not as far behind as when the results were first announced. So, Ellmers is now within the margin of fraud. And the NRCC isn't helping her with the legal costs. The Tea Party is why the Repulicans are where they are now, but since Ellmers is a Tea Party endorsed candidate, she never had any support from the old guard and isn't going to now. If you want to contribute, here's where:
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Where is Renee Elmers from NC-2?? She is leading incumbent democrat Bob "boom boom" Ethridge by 1600 votes and is getting NO support from RNC in recount effort. Please get her listed as it may help her raise funds to insure accurate recount.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs for the Texas 27th. The remaining ballots that are left to be count aren't enough for the democrat to overtake the Republican. However, the democrat and south Texas politics are crooked as can be so don't be surprised if the democrat wins this race after a recount is called for.
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBob Etheridge will go down fighting and we've seen how he is when he's cornered.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't know why it isn't mentioned here, but Altschuler in NY1 has taken the lead for the time being. I'd thought it would be big news!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMost of these races have already slipped away. The best prospects are Farenthold, Buerkle, Altschuler and Walsh.
The NY races may be disappointing, because Altschuler and Buerkle seemed to surge in the final days, after those absentees were cast.
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