It seems a little early to spend a lot of time writing about the 2012 Senate races, but after Roy Blunt’s big win in Missouri this year, it seems likely that the 2012 race between (presumably) incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and her GOP challenger will be a competitive one, and a promising opportunity for a GOP takeover. And there are already rumblings in the “Show Me” State about who might run on the Republican side . . .
Is Ann Wagner eyeing a run for the U.S. Senate?
“The straight answer is that I’m absolutely thinking about it and seriously considering it,” she said Tuesday on KMOX.
Wagner ran Roy Blunt’s successful Senate campaign, once chaired the national Republican Party and served as President Bush’s ambassador to Luxembourg.
“Any one of the statewide offices I’d be interested in, and certainly the United States Senate,” she told talk host Mark Reardon…
Her decision, she said, would be based on what others, like Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and former Senator Jim Talent, decide to do in 2012.
Just win, baby. Missouri Republicans, please choose wisely.
Some states, esp. ND and NE, should basically be automatic pick-ups for the GOP. Montana, too, should be very favorable to our side, even though Montana seems more purple than the Great Plains states. Some light-blue states that were good for the GOP this year (e.g., MI and PA) will likely be tougher in two years. Toomey barely hung on to win in a very favorable year for Republicans even though I think he was a great candidate; winning PA in two years with a similarly conservative Republican is not going to be easy unless Democrats falter even more. Michigan may be swinging to the GOP for fixing their own state government, but whether they are ready to elect a Republican senator remains to be seen. Between the easy pick-ups and the difficult pick-ups is Missouri. Given this year’s elections there and the fact that McCain hung on to win that state even as he lost in a lot of other purple states, there’s a lot of reason for optimism, and I like our odds there. But the lesson of Nevada, from my perspective, is that we need to pick a candidate who is not going to be unappealing to independents. I think Sharron Angle would have made a great senator, but we need more candidates who can be solidly conservative without scaring off people in the middle, Marco Rubio being the best example.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt will be interesting to see how defencial Governor Nixon is to the Republican house members when the redistricing negotiations begin. Will Nixon hold out to protect Carnahan if it means Todd Akin might challenge him for Governor or if he jumps into the Senate race thus forcing another GOP heavy hitter into the Gubernatorial race?
Akin is in line to become the chairman on the seapower subcommiittee in the House Armed Services Committee so that isn't clout you want to destory (if you are a Governor of Boeing's home state) and why create more competition for your job when you can just as easily thrown a potential future competitor from your own party under the bus?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSpeaking as a VERY happy Missouri Republican.... I'm worried. McCaskill's a far more formidable proposition then Robin Carnahan. Ann Wagner's an excellent fundraiser, and a fine person, but not someone with an electoral track record, or a public profile. Jim Talent is one of the smartest men you'll find, and his loss to McCaskill in 2006 was one of the great tragedies...but is another rematch the way to go? I don't see Sam Graves or Todd Akin as likely statewide winners. Kenny Huslhof's got baggage now, though he'd be a first rate senator. Peter Kinder seems to want to take on Nixon for the Governor's job, though he'd probably have an easier race for Senate ( I know plenty of Republicans who grudgingly admit that Nixon's about as good a governor as a Democrat can be). Who does that leave? Steelman? Catherine Hannaway? ( And all the non-Missourians are saying "Who ARE these people?)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOne of these two could be good:
Todd Akin is an outstanding potential Senator and is extremely conservative: External Link
Sam Graves did surprisingly well in 2008 when other Republicans fared poorly: External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKinder might be the best choice. He would probably stand a better chance at being elected Senator than Governor as the Governor is a popular incumbent.
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Kinder would get a lot of support from the NRA and RTL. He is also a Cape Girardeau favorite son - could he get help from Limbaugh?
I think the question for Republicans in Missouri is: would it be better for Missouri if the best candidate the GOP has to offer were to take on the incumbent Governor or the incumbent Senator? Nationally, the Senate wins - so Kinder might get a lot of outside help for the Senate race that he wouldn't get for Governor.
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