Indiana Republican senator Dick Lugar voted against the earmark ban today, much to the frustration of conservatives. He appears to be sowing the seeds of a serious primary challenge, if conservative Indianans can find the right candidate.
The Indianapolis Star lays out how unusual these circumstances are:
Tea party activists and other social conservatives are actively searching for a candidate around whom they can unite to beat Lugar in the 2012 primary election.
How remarkable is that? Lugar hasn’t had a primary opponent since “Happy Days” ruled the TV ratings and “(Shake, Shake, Shake) Shake Your Booty” topped the charts. That was 1976 — the year Lugar first went to the Senate.
But dissatisfaction — and even downright anger — has been building among some conservatives. They watched in dismay earlier this year when Lugar voted to confirm liberal Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan. This month, they were at odds with Lugar when he defended congressional earmarks; backed a bill to help some illegal immigrants who came here as children earn a path to citizenship; and stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to push for a new nuclear treaty with Russia.
“He’s bombarded us” in the past couple of weeks with reasons to oust him, said Diane Hubbard, an Indianapolis Tea Party organizer who was among 65 people who protested Lugar’s co-sponsorship of the immigration bill — called the DREAM Act — outside his Indianapolis office Saturday.
The paper notes that in late October, Lugar commissioned a poll of 800 registered Indiana voters to gauge their view of him, as well as 15 other politicians. The list included state treasurer Richard Mourdock and state senator Mike Delph (R., Carmel), who have been mentioned as potential challengers to Lugar. The numbers are ominous, at least for now:
The poll, taken by American Viewpoint and with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, found that Lugar is viewed favorably by 66 percent of Hoosiers, with only 19 percent having an unfavorable view. Mourdock — whose name was recognized by only 49 percent of those polled — was viewed favorably by 14 percent and unfavorably by 9 percent. Delph, a familiar name to only 30 percent, was viewed favorably by 7 percent and unfavorably by 2 percent.
Of course, an October 2008 poll matching up Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio probably would have been a Crist landslide.
There's a big difference between a sitting Congressman with credibility challenging Lugar on the basis of his policy positions, and someone like a Christine O'Donnell who just represents "not the establishment" running against Lugar. The first candidate I don't have a big problem with. It's the second I'm worried about.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet's see Mitch Daniels in this Senate seat before we support him for the White House.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe've got a bench in Indiana - I'm sure there will be a credible non-establishment that conservatives can rally around such that we will not wind up with someone who has a lot of baggage and personal issues.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThese are both serious candidates who would be regarded as viable candidates if recruited for an open seat. Mourdock was the leading vote-getter in Indiana when he was re-elected this month - ran well ahead of Dan Coates and the other successful statewide candidates. Delph has been laying groundwork to run for some sort of higher office for awhile. If Dan Burton retires, Delph would be the front runner to replace him. Both are well known to political activists and donors.
Lugar hasn't had a viable challenger in decades, and I'm not sure he appreciates his vulnerability - he was virtually invisible during this year's campaigns. Missed some good chances to earn gratitude.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI would love to see Mitch Daniels take him on - and then see Mike Pence become governor. This is a win-win.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWatch Marlin Stutzman , 2010 senate aspirant and new Congressman from IN 3
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo way Daniels challenges Lugar. First, he's made clear he has no interest in going back to Washington. Might let himself be talked into running for President, but not the Senate. Second, he and Lugar go way back. Mitch worked for Lugar on his mayoral staff and then followed him to Washington when Lugar first went to the Senate.
Stutzman is plausible, but I doubt he leaves his safe House seat to gamble on a Senate run. And I don't see him as being any stronger a candidate than Mourdock anyway.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseStutzman probably has to wait - he's a brand new Congressman and putting together another Senate run would probably require him to spend the better part of the cycle campaigning. That would probably look bad - if he wanted to run against Lugar he should have declined to run for the House. My guess is that he doesn't want to anyway - taking on an incumbent is hard even when you have a favorable environment. Coats is 67 - he may not even run for re-election in 2016, which would leave it open for Stutzman, who would by then have been elected to the House 3 times and would have an easier path.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIndiana has a great set of Conservatives that can beat Lugar. Lugar hasn't had a primary challenge in 26 years and will be 80 years old in 2012. Making him 86 by the end of his potential next term. In addition, he hasn't run a true statewide campaign in many years and I don't think he has the stamina. If this race continues to get national attention Lugar is gone.
Treasurer Mourdock is the best bet. He received over 1 million votes for the unknown office of state treasurer. In addition he has run 2 statewide campaigns and has experience in a primary.
Indiana said bye bye Bayh and now Lugar has got to go.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGovernor Mitch is no friend to small, localized government, although he does understand fiscal responsibility. He'd make a great cabinet member, but neither a senator nor a president.
Richard Mourdock has been a solid conservative well known to state Republicans for many years. If he can convince the Tea Party that he is serious about limiting government he could easily defeat the dinosaur RINO Lugar, who is in his last senate term, whether he knows it or not. His lengthy tenure is more a liability than an asset.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Tricky Dick" is the Senator from ConAgra. He should be very mindful that the only reason Coats is his understudy again is because the conservative primary vote split on the other 2 candidates.
Lugar ultimately represents the epitome of the "go along to get along", establishment, country-club "republican" that has wrecked the name Republican and helped to put the country into this hole. So long as HE and HIS are in power, he could give a da*n about us peons in Indiana.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLugar is going to retire. As soon as 2012 rolls around, and polls start showing him losing to a "generic" primary challenger, he won't have the desire to pull an "Arlen Specter" and try to fight to stave off the inevitable. Maybe I'm underestimating how much the respect Hoosier voters have for Lugar, which I assume is fairly considerable ,will weigh on their decision.
Making it harder to rally against him is the fact that, of all the moderate GOP Senators, Lugar is the most conservative among them. His lifetime ACU rating (while not the Holy Grail on the subject) of 77 places him roughly equal with Thad Cochran MS, Kit Bond MO, Lamar Alexander TN. That's not really a list of die-hard moderates.
His breaks with conservatives are trending toward more important issues, though, and that is hurting him.
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