The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

A Bold Early Prediction from a GOP Pollster


Republican pollster Glen Bolger:

Control of the House of Representatives after the 2012 elections will still belong to the Republicans. IF Barack Obama stages a political comeback (which is certainly within the realm of possibility), Democrats will start the presidential coattails drumbeat. However, there are two compelling tables in this post underscoring that the House outcome will dance to the beat of a different drummer . . . The first factor is that even strong Presidents who win re-election do not have long coattails . . . The other factor putting a stake through the vampire hearts of the Democrats’ hopes of control post-2012 is the overwhelming shift in redistricting fortunes. Because of GOP gains in Gov races and the legislatures, there will be a dramatic change in the structure of the 2012 House races.

We’ll remember this, Namath.

Tags: 2012 , Barack Obama , House of Representatives


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