If you live outside Indiana, you probably have never heard of Becky Skillman. But she could end up having a far-reaching impact on the 2012 Republican field, through a fascinating domino effect.
Skillman is the Lieutenant Governor of Indiana, and she recently decided to not run for governor in 2012, citing health issues. Because she won’t be running as a Republican and Evan Bayh isn’t running on the Democrat side, the field appears to be clear for Congressman Mike Pence to run for the job of governor if he wants it more than he wants to run for president.
At Ace of Spades, Drew M. follows the dominoes: “Pence’s decision is probably a pretty big domino in the race. He seems to be a candidate that fits Sarah Palin’s criteria, so if he runs, she may not. Obviously, the reverse is true (unless another candidate steps up). Palin’s decision probably has an impact on whether or not Mike Huckabee runs, since it seems there’s a good bit of overlap in their voters. Of course all of that will have an impact on Mitt Romney’s chances.”
If Pence runs for governor instead of president, that probably brings in Palin. (I also have a feeling that we wouldn’t see both Pence and Daniels run. As Hoosiers, their network of supporters and donors overlap somewhat, and there might not be enough support or media oxygen for both of them, even though their styles are different.)
Would Huckabee would hesitate in the face of Palin? I had a chance to hang around with the former Arkansas governor in a Fox News green room recently, and he reinforced my sense that it’s impossible to not like Huckabee personally. I won’t get into any specifics, since I think it’s rude to quote casual conversations, but I’d say he seems pretty happy doing his television show. He said to me — as he’s said elsewhere — that he doesn’t want to see the GOP primary turn into a “demolition derby” that ends with a battered nominee running low on cash. Would the presence of Palin make the GOP primary rougher or more congenial? She certainly hasn’t minded throwing a few elbows at “blue bloods” and the like.
This all assumes that ego isn't an overriding factor in one's decision to run for president. None of these potential candidates have gotten to where they are today with the mindset of "oh, so-and-so is just as good or better than me for the job."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFor years I have been hoping that Rep. Pence would run for statewide office so as to demonstrate his ability to win higher office and to give him greater media exposure. For years he declined to do so. Understandably its hard to reliquish the comforts of being a Republican congressman in an R +10 east-cental Indiana district. The fact that he is now seriously considering running for President against candidates who have proven themselves as Governors and Senators - that is much less understandable.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePence for Governor.
Daniels for Senate (take out Lugar).
Palin for President.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's comical yet fitting that the person who thinks Daniels would "take out" his mentor, is also the same person who thinks Palin should be president.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBecky Skillman's announcement certainly is likely to have far-reaching consequences. But I'm wondering whether some of them may be planned, and whether this might shed some light on their plans.
First of all, Skillman looked to be actively running for governor until very recently. Even her comments on Evan Bayh's announcement last week sounded like she was planning on doing it. I think the expectation was that she would be unopposed unless Pence decided to run for governor, but that she'd be an underdog against him. Her announcement makes a great deal of sense if she has inside information that Pence is planning on running for Governor. And that decision may well be premised on Gov. Daniel's plans. As Jim noted, a Pence Presidential campaign really cannot afford to split in-state resources with another candidate. Likewise, Daniels can't really afford to have Pence draining those resources from him. Daniels & Skillman are pretty close, so I wonder whether this could be a sign Mitch is running, and is clearing the gubernatorial field for Pence.
On the other hand, maybe Skillman really is just concerned about her health. If Pence also passes on running for Governor, that could have an impact on the Senate race as the guys rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Lugar (state Treasurer Richard Mourdock and state Sen. Mike Delph) would have an easier shot shot at the governorship.
Or there are several other strong potential candidates.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI like Palin but do not see her beating Obama unless we're at 12 or 15% umeployment by 2012....or a video of Reggie Love having his way with Obama finally surfaces. I hope Ms. Palin continues to build a nice lil personal fortune by flirting with the idea of running for President but does NOT get into the race next year. With Obama finally lookin quite vulnerable in 2012, the GOP needs to nominate someone who can win back states like Ohio, NC, Iowa, Florida. Not someone who would just carry the McCain states by a little bit more than ole Johnny did.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseInteresting row of dominoes.
I think Pence goes for governor of IN.
If Daniels runs, it will be because the GOP Establishment and TPM Establishment (FreedomWorks, etc.) back him instead of Romney.
If Daniels does not run, gunning for Lugar in the primary would be a nice hunt, and I think Daniels might be able to pull it off. Lugar is a notorious Rino.
Since Huck knows he can't win if Palin is running, and since he is only a socon and not a conservative on anything else, he may not run.
This does open it up for Palin vs. Romney, or if Romney fades due to all the numerous negatives on him, the GOP Establishment will back in this order: Daniels, Thune, Pawlenty.
Chances are Sarah wins the primary BUT will have to pick a Veep that is OK with the Rino Establishment.
I think she would do that to unite the party.
Then, if Obama's economy is still bad and we are still bogged down in Afghanistan and Obama is still pulling hard left with Executive actions using the EPA, FCC, etc. Sarah will become President. She really only needs to win six more states than McCain did and those will be IN, OH, VA, NC, FL and one of the following: WI or IA or NH or CO.
The GOP should take 6+ Senate seats and hold their lead in the House thereby setting up a chance to really seriously ratchet back the federal government.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePence and Daniels combined would NOT have the intellect or experience that Sarah Palin has. Neither one of them even remotely compares to Sarah or what she said either. It would take someone of her own caliber to cause her to step aside. THERE IS NO ONE WHO COMES CLOSE THAT HASN'T ALREADY SHOT THEIR WAD INTO THE WIND. And a dark horse just isn't going to materialize out of thin air.
Run Sarah Run! 2012
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFor the record, I do not think Palin "should" be President. At least not in 2012. But of the currently presumed candidates, she is my choice. I think Rick Perry SHOULD be President.
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