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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Does Anyone Believe that Barack Obama Will Win South Carolina in 2012?



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Say, fellas at Public Policy Polling

Raleigh, N.C. – Except for 1976, South Carolina has not voted for a Democratic  presidential candidate since 1960, when the South was still blue.  But add the Palmetto State to the growing list of previously unreachable stars for President Obama, as he beats  Sarah Palin, 47-41, and Newt Gingrich, 44-43, while trailing native son Jim DeMint only  45-47, Mike Huckabee, 43-49, and Mitt Romney, 42-49.  John McCain prevailed here by a slightly larger nine points, already much closer than 2004 and other recent elections.

Does anyone… anyone at all… believe that Barack Obama is going to win the state of South Carolina in 2012?

I would note that the sample breakdown for race and party ID in this sample is actually more or less in line with the 2008 results, defusing my traditional gripe with PPP. But the idea that Barack Obama could beat any Republican in the state of Jim DeMint and Joe Wilson seems pretty hard to imagine. If Obama’s winning South Carolina, then he’s enjoying a 1984-style landslide, and that’s tough to rectify with a job approval rating that has improved but is still pretty “meh.”


Tags: Barack Obama , Polling


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