Gallup says that not having a clear presidential front-runner in the Republican party is historically abnormal:
“The wide-open battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination — with nearly a three-way tie among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney — is quite different from the typical pattern observed in past Republican nomination contests. In Gallup polling since 1952, Republican Party nomination races always featured a clear front-runner at this stage of the campaign, and in almost all cases, that front-runner ultimately won the nomination.”
It’s worth noting, however, that much of this chart is ancient history, when GOP candidates had names like “Romney” and “Bush.”
On a slightly more serious note, observe how many second-place candidates ended up not seriously competing for the nomination: Ford never formally declared in 1980, Dan Quayle never made a serious bid in 1996, citing health issues; Elizabeth Dole ended her run before any of the primaries in 2000. Some might argue that Rudy Giuliani’s run turned out to be not-so-serious last cycle.
Portends a blow-out loss in 2012.
If you cannot enthuse the base to come out in droves, which is apparent, you are looking at electoral disaster.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePortends a blow-out loss in 2012.
If you cannot enthuse the base to come out in droves, which is apparent, you are looking at electoral disaster.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"If you cannot enthuse the base to come out in droves, which is apparent, you are looking at electoral disaster."
Yeah like in '80 when Reagan only got 31% support initially. Boy he sure lost big that year!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe the "electorate" is sick to death of polls that are meaningless 12 months before the first scheduled primary vote.
Maybe it's only the 24/7 New Media and the MSM who have the vested interest in pushing/destroying possible candidates 12 months before the race begins.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAccording to Intrade, a prediction market, Romney is the front runner, with more than 25% chance to win the nomination.
In second place comes Pawlenty @ 13%, followed by Daniels @ 11-12%.
When Daniels will announce a run (if he does), he will become second favorite -- because Pawlenty is almost certainly running (@95%), and this certainty is included in his odds.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhereas the market gives Daniels only 60% chance to announce a run.
Jim,
I guess that you missed these results. We do have a GOP frontrunner, and his name is Ron Paul.
CPAC Straw Poll 2011:
Ron Paul Wins For Second Consecutive Year
Tea Party Summit 2011 Results:
Republican Rep. Ron Paul of Texas wins the online poll.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is a front runner alright. Its Ron Paul but, most of the msm and msm polls are continuing their marginalization of him. It won't work. The cat is out of the bag and its RON PAUL.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseschool of fish ... don't give the MSM a fat target to Alinsky ...
since its the independents who will decide things in 2012, just as they almost always have ... the bases will turnout, especially with Obama on the ticket ...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRON PAUL -- The Winner of most Presidential polls thus far.
New campaign year, more of the same from bigoted writers.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHa. And do you really expect Palin and Huckleberry to give up their multi-million dollar contracts with FOX just so they can have another failed effort at the White House?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRecent national mainstream poll put Ron Paul at 41% against Obama 42%. He won CPAC two years in a row. Started the Tea Parties in 2007 (the first Tea Party was a Ron Paul event). More donations from military personnel than all other Republican candidates combined in 2008. Why does the MSM refuse to call him a valid candidate? Look for them to ignore, discredit and smear Ron Paul. He is a dire threat to the status quo, because they can't buy him off. Why has the political class turned on our Constitution? Are they up for jail terms if we start enforcing it again?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's rich hearing Paulists mock Palin and Huckabee for making failed White House runs. How many is Paul up to now?
There was an old joke about William Jennings Bryan when he made his third run for the presidency in 1908: vote for Taft; you can vote for Bryan any time. I'm looking forward to being able to say the same thing about Paul.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I am reading that Gallup chart correctly, it should show Goldwater and McCain at "-26" and "-17," respectively, not "+" as shown.
In other words, there was a clear frontrunner both of those years, but neither was the eventual nominee. Both of the nominees lost, of course. However, of the three eventual nominees with the biggest leads this far out, two of them lost, too, and the third (W) was elected, but lost the popular vote.
If you're keeping score at home, that means five of the ten "solid frontrunners" shown above eventually lost, and a sixth barely squeaked into office.
By contrast, the narrowest previous margin at this point (and only one below 10 points) was held by Ronald Reagan, who went on to win a popular majority even with a Republican running as an Independent and pulling almost 7% of the vote.
In other words, I don't think there is any meaningful conclusion we can draw from this data - at least, nothing negative for this year's eventual nominee, whoever that may be.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRon Paul is going to destroy all these liars when the debates start.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDear Paulbots:
You spammed every web post in 2007-2008, too - look how your man fared that election cycle.
Is Paul even running for President again?
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