I think what’s most surprising about
these numbers is that they’re from a sample of “registered voters,” not “likely voters”:
Fully half of registered voters say they would definitely or probably vote for a candidate other than President Obama if the presidential election were held today, according to a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll.
50 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would definitely or probably vote for someone else, while just 40 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for the president.
Just 22 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama, while 18 percent said they would probably vote for him. 35 percent would definitely vote for someone else while another 16 percent would probably vote for someone else.
WE will see if this trumps the he is personally well liked (70% ish) even though his policies are not. Luntz thinks he will win because of that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLuntz is wrong. by 2012 Obama will be lucky to get 30% in the same poll. I'm still considering the fact he may drop from the race early or be challenged late. All of the pain indicators are worse and going in the wrong direction, and he is doing nothing to curtail any of them. The pain at (take your pick) pump, dollar, stocks, commodities, cost of living, healthcare, etc. will all be worse by election time as there is no reason for any of them to improve.
He will have added another $2 trillion+ to the debt by then as well, we will be talking $16 trillion in debt and still doing trillion dollar deficits. By 2012 Nancy Pelosi and Barrack Obama will have doubled the national debt from the time they took the House to present. You do not get the young pumped up when they realize it is on their future this debt resides, they are waking up to the travesty more and more everyday. The only people backing him will be government employees and blacks (although many of them are also not with him anymore too), and there are only 24,000,000 government employees nation wide, and not all vote Democrat.
I see no way for Obama to win re-election in a national contest. Hope and Change became a real Nightmare, and he can't smooth talk that in any debate, Bush is gone to beat up, and his record will replace it now. He will get so battered on a daily basis for the facts he created that it will look like the most lopsided election other than Reagan's re-election. The exception, Reagan earned it, Obama will have earned his loss just as mightily.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe poll is a bit stacked, but not much. 52/48 for women and 31/25 for Democrats..so 6 points. Indies get only 29% with another 10%! are other than these..like what? Is there a Cannibis party? The spin is that this is positive for Obama. Problem has been that he gets 49% approval rating which is 9points higher than his elect rating of 40. Supposedly, 30% see him as changing for the better. I wouldn't like these numbers if I were on his team, but we will see I guess. I always find it fascinating that it is so hard to get the stats from the people trumpeting the good news. But I did find it. Here is the link
External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Obama's numbers continue to slide, I'd bet the Dems will do what they did in Massachusetts last year---gin up a 3rd party candidate. It saved Deval Patrick, and Dem pundits have said for months that Patrick's re-election bid was Obama's "model". If the only way Obama can win is with a 3-way field, we'll have a 3-way field.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am still stuck in the funk that The One will still be re-elected. Woe is me.
Help me Obi Wan! You're my only hope!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is too much on the line to bother with a 3rd. The vast majority is not going to fall for that gimmick in this election at this time. This will end up the biggest dog pile of an election against a candidate in history, not even worried about it.
We all know 10% of any group is whacky, so he gets at least 10%, then there are the 20% liberal left wing nuts of 20%, so I say he gets 30% tops.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAn "independent" candidate was how they re-elected Governor Quinn here in Illinois. The "independent" actually was the original Democrat nominee for Lieutenant Governor, whom they had convinced not to run. He then filed as a candidate for Governor right before the filing deadline. Then, a couple of weeks before the election, there were a TON of ads for this guy on talk radio and billboards for him all over the interstates downstate (where people didn't know who he was.) Bottom line: Quinn got fewer votes than the Dem candidate for US Senate (Obambi's friend Gianoulias), but nonetheless got re-elected.
Look for a well-financed "Independent" to take enough conservative-leaning independants away from the GOP. Won't be a Perot replay, but it will be someone who will appeal to voters who don't trust Republicans to cut spending and who are either apathetic or ignorant about social issues.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHow many of the people surveyed were in the graveyards in Chicago?
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