Has the United States backed a insurrectionist force that is simply too undermanned to achieve its goal of overthrowing Qaddafi? Have we committed ourselves to a military action in which our key ally and ground force is incapable of accomplishing our primary objective?
If this reporter in Benghazi has an accurate head count, it appears the answer is yes:
During “In the Arena,” Jon Lee Anderson, staff writer for The New Yorker reporting from Benghazi, Libya, tells Eliot Spitzer that the number of opposition fighters on the front lines are fewer than anyone would think and that they are poorly armed and badly trained. Anderson says, “Effective number of fighting men, well under 1,000. Actual soldiers, who are now in the fight, possibly in the very low hundreds on the opposition side.”
For comparison, there are roughly 5,000 members worldwide of the 501st Legion, a group of Star Wars fans who dress up like stormtroopers and other characters from the movies.
The debate about arming the "rebels" appears to be moot. They don't have the bodies to deploy small arms effectively and they don't have the skills to use anything else.
Obama has exactly two options open. He can send in a Marine expeditionary force to conquer Libya and set up a provisional government with the clear understanding that we'll be there for years. U.S forces could supress Libya's tribal conflicts which would both keep the oil flowing and keep the blood from flowing. Option #2 -- Obama can accept defeat and try to return to status quo ante bellum in the hope that Gaddafi will let bygones be bygones. Either way he will hurt himself politically and the wound may prove fatal.
Way to go Barry! President 0 is the best thing that ever happened to the conservative movement.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell - this is what happens when there is no over-arching policy which under-pins any consideration along these lines.
For all of the intellectuals in and around this administration, they seem to be making it up as they go along.
What a sad state of affairs.
My son goes to basic training in June . . . I pray for his commander-in-chief.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't see Zach Snyder directing a film about them in the future
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis obviously makes Obama look like a dunce.
But it also doesn't exactly shine the reputations of certain Republicans whose objection to the Libyan War was that we didn't start it sooner.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf they had established a no-fly zone a month ago, when the rebels were on the outskirts of Tripoli, they would have bottled-up Qadaffi's troops within their bases. Those troops would be offered the option of surrender or turn against Qadaffi, otherwise their depots would be destroyed.
No-fly could have been established using US resources only, using the cruise missiles, B-2s to take out the airfields and a couple of carriers to provide air denial and ground attack. In the meantime, Obama could have been bringing others into the coalition.
Then, except for humanitarian aid, Tripoli could have been held under a soft siege (no bombardment except for command and control and missile defense) until the rebels were properly trained and equipped, at which time, the rebels could attack the city and take control.
Obama's dithering lost that opportunity.
Then again, as it becomes more apparent that there are relatively few rebels, and their numbers are being increasingly augmented by Al Qaeda, it might have been better to do a little more intelligence a month ago to determine the actual number of rebels, and whether they were of sufficient number to warrant our support.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis whole episode displays why it is so necessary to have a CIC who is experienced rather than a political hack or a community organizer who went to Hahvard. Given the amount of information, the conflicting opinions, the multiple options, at some point the CIC has to know what the heck is right and has to have his own instincts based on knowledge and experience. Otherwise, you have what we have. Besides, even when you formulate a policy, how you execute the whole thing depends on experience and knowledge. We're cooked. My only hope is that Obama is toast.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWouldn't it be weird if we gave them a bunch of weapons, which summarily disappear into the night, followed by a quick surrender? Wouldn't that be weird?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo it's not Obama's Iraq-- it's his Bay of Pigs.
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