I’ll admit, I figured that most polling, examining a potential Virginia Senate race matchup between the GOP’s former governor and Sen. George Allen and Democrats’ former Gov. Tim Kaine would show a close race.
But at least one poll says otherwise, at least at this point:
In a very early look at the possible battle for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb, registered voters in the Commonwealth preferred former Gov. and U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, over former Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, by 45 percent to 32 percent with 23 percent undecided.
The pollster notes that margin of error for this question was + 5.2 percent because it was asked only of the 360 registered voters in the sample, a little larger than one would like, and note it’s registered voters, not likely voters.
Also note “Among the battleground groups, Kaine led among political moderates (41%-34%), while Allen led among Independent voters (40%-35%). Not surprisingly, Allen led among Republicans (78%-4%) and conservatives (68%-10%) while Kaine led among Democrats (79%-12%) and liberals (83%-10%).”
Hear that? 12 percent of Democrats and 10 percent of self-described liberals would vote for George Allen over Tim Kaine.
My governor, Bob McDonnell, is pretty darn popular, according to this poll; they find his approval rating is now 66 percent, up from 57 percent in December.
Meanwhile, the “Obama can win Virginia again” argument just took a hit: “With regard to the nation, 71 percent of respondents believe that things are on the wrong track with only 20 percent believing that things are going in the right direction. This is essentially unchanged from December. President Obama’s approval rating is now 34 percent, compared to 36 percent in December, well within the polls’ margin of error.”
The number that jumps out is the "moderates." I'm going to assume here these are self-described moderates. That means left leaning independents are not that sweet on Kaine. That's why "independents" are breaking slightly for Allen.
The interesting question is when does Obama abandon the state entirely. I bet it is pretty early this cycle. That's a boost to Allen as well.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat is an encouraging number. Obama and Kaine are one so if Obama cashes out early then Kaine's election is near impossible.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe keep hearing that Obama will win because young people and minorities will turn out in bigger numbers than they did last November.
But: "President Obama’s approval rating is now 34 percent, compared to 36 percent in December, well within the polls’ margin of error.”
Presumably these pollsters talked to everyone, white, black, Asian.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHope George Allen wins, he got a raw deal a few years ago, even by some conservatives for the Macaca thing.
I wonder why nobody touts McDonnel for president. He could carry Virginia and North Carolina easily over Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePeople are delusional if they think black turnout for Obama will be lower this time. He's the first black president and most black voters are not going to want to see him lose relection, no matter how horrible the economy is, and I would not doubt if he gets an even bigger turnout than 2008 by black voters. It sucks but it's the way it is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTom O'Gorman when the phone rings and it is a pollster they don't ask you your race.
The most fun I ever had was a call from a Dem pollster (yes married to a Dem - blush)who mistook my deep voice as male and I answered all his questions :>)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is no way in this universe Obama gets re-elected. He is simply unelectable, period.
Unemployment of 18-24 year olds is 24% That group is not supporting Obama for sure, and that group is motivated to vote. Gas prices are going up so fast and high that Obama's numbers are going to tank by the end of summer when it is over $5 a gallon, or $6 or $7. Americans have never seen $5 a gallon gas, but you are all about to. I lived in Japan for years, so I don't have sticker shock yet.
The debt ceiling needs to be increased another $2.2 trillion just to make it to Sept 2012, so they will increase it $3.3 trillion before the election arrives.
We will be looking at $16 trillion in debt and still running over $1 trillion deficit on election night and interest on the debt will be around $500 billion a year by itself.
The country will be livid with Democrats during the 2012 budget fight as Dems want to increase spending even now, and the public will be offered the Ryan Plan or more spending Obama plan. He does not want to cut anything, he wants to "invest" even as we borrow .40 cents of every dollar the government spends or $4 billion dollars a day!
On election day 2012 Obama will be lucky if he has a 34% approval rating in any state as millions of Americans will have been driven over by the Obama bus well before then.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@Matt X
You know what trumps race for blacks? Being able to feed your family. Blacks have improved overall in recent decades, but not enough to not be among the most hurt by high fuel prices as a group. They were promised a ton of things by Obama, but he delivered nothing. QuackDaffy is a good friend of Farrakan, Obama is hated by the most militant black group in the country now, when they were his strongest supporters, until he hosed them too.
Trust me, blacks as a whole are not in love with Obama. He makes Clinton the first real black President, and that isn't even a joke. I would bet he losses 10-15% of the black vote easily and would not be surprised to see 20% or 50% less turnout. Why would they bother to vote for him? They are way worse off with Hope and Change, who isn't?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn any Virginia poll I wonder about the designation "independent." Since VA has open primaries no one has to register as a party member. I think that there are a lot of people who are consistent supporters of one party or another and in other states would be registered party members, but think of themselves as independents. And do so legitimately, because of the primary format of their state.
When poll responders self-identify to a pollster there may be a disproportionate number of "independents" in VA and other open primary states. That's not to say that the self-described independents are being disingenuous, it's just that the political structure of their state makes for a different operational definition of independent than in other states or in the nation at large.
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