The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Poll: Obama’s Approval Rating in Virginia Now 34%


I’ll admit, I figured that most polling, examining a potential Virginia Senate race matchup between the GOP’s former governor and Sen. George Allen and Democrats’ former Gov. Tim Kaine would show a close race.

But at least one poll says otherwise, at least at this point:

In a very early look at the possible battle for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb, registered voters in the Commonwealth preferred former Gov. and U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, over former Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, by 45 percent to 32 percent with 23 percent undecided.

The pollster notes that margin of error for this question was + 5.2 percent because it was asked only of the 360 registered voters in the sample, a little larger than one would like, and note it’s registered voters, not likely voters.

Also note “Among the battleground groups, Kaine led among political moderates (41%-34%), while Allen led among Independent voters (40%-35%). Not surprisingly, Allen led among Republicans (78%-4%) and conservatives (68%-10%) while Kaine led among Democrats (79%-12%) and liberals (83%-10%).”

Hear that? 12 percent of Democrats and 10 percent of self-described liberals would vote for George Allen over Tim Kaine.

My governor, Bob McDonnell, is pretty darn popular, according to this poll; they find his approval rating is now 66 percent, up from 57 percent in December.

Meanwhile, the “Obama can win Virginia again” argument just took a hit: “With regard to the nation, 71 percent of respondents believe that things are on the wrong track with only 20 percent believing that things are going in the right direction. This is essentially unchanged from December. President Obama’s approval rating is now 34 percent, compared to 36 percent in December, well within the polls’ margin of error.”

Tags: Barack Obama , Bob McDonnell , George Allen , Tim Kaine


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