Dan Wasserman of Lightsource has some more thoughts on that Associated Press poll that had 46 percent of respondents Democratic or Democratic-leaning and only 29 percent of respondents Republican or Republican-leaning. He also points to Pollster.com’s database of party ID breakdowns, going back all the way to September 2008.
The 18 percent that self-identify as Republican in AP’s latest is the smallest percentage to identify with the GOP in any survey conducted by any pollster since September 2009. Meanwhile, the 35 percent who self-identify as Democratic in the AP poll is the among the largest percentages to identify with that party in that same time period.
During this time period, it does not appear that any other pollster has found any partisan split close to the nearly 2:1 Democrat-to-Republican advantage the AP poll finds. Most have more Democrats than Republicans, with the Democratic percentages usually in the low 30s and the GOP self-identification percentages ranging in the 20s. At first glance, I don’t see any surveys that have a 17-point split.
Again, it is possible that there has indeed been a sudden, dramatic shift in party-ID numbers triggered by the Osama bin Laden kill. But neither Reuters nor NBC News polls, conducted during the same time, saw the same 2:1 margin. Further polls will help indicate whether AP’s survey first caught a dramatic swing or whether the poll is an outlier.
News flash: the poll's an outlier, an absurd outlier. Obama got about a 5-6 point bump, and that's already receding in the Rasmussen. But AP gave the headline the mainstream media wanted.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat result was a MSM wet dream. The only item that could be vaguely at issue, is that there are a umber of Conservative voters who may not want to be Republicans. As things go I have been tracking ideology a little more closely, as the "Republican" brand has disappointed many conservatives.
That being said no way there is that dramatic a split. Rasmussen has Obama almost where he started. Some of the recent news, specifically the "moat" comment and others are destined to bring Obama down.
When the AZ issue was hot Obama's polls plummeted. Being on the side of illegal immigration is a loser issue...this coming from a Republican who would put illegals on a fast track to citizenship ONCE THE FENCE IS BUILD AND THE BORDER IS UNDER CONTROL!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGallup has the split at 4 (32 D, 28R) and only 1 with indie leaners (45 D, 44 R).
So that poll WAS absolutely bogus.
No apologizing for pointing it out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo, the AP poll was NOT at outlier.
It was just a regular liar.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOn the day the AP poll came out, it was the top news story on Yahoo's homepage for most of the day - until the details of the poll were revealed, after which the story disappeared from the homepage line-up. The AP's purpose was served, however, as Democratic pundits who appeared on Fox News that night repeatedly referenced it and continue to do so, not caring that it's been widely discredited as having a skewed polling sample. Regardless of what he might say in public, President Obama has to be concerned that the AP had to "create" for him an approval rating he was once able to attain on his own.
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