Obviously, we shouldn’t put too much stock in polling in primary states right now. But CNN polled New Hampshire Republicans, and found more or less what we would expect: Mitt Romney at 32 percent, Ron Paul at 9 percent, Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent, Sarah Palin at 5 percent, and a lot of candidates tied at 4 percent: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels [who announced he wasn't running on the last day of the poll], Jon Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty. Another 17 percent are undecided.
In other words, the guy who narrowly lost the state in 2008 has a higher percentage of the vote at this point than the next five candidates combined.
However, this early in the cycle, polls are mostly measuring name identification. Everyone in the field except Mitt Romney has work to do on their name ID, but there’s plenty of time.
The problem for Romney is that expectations are firmly in place for a HUGE win in NH; so anything short of that would devastating to his campaign.
My prediction; Romney wins NH but with much smaller margin than expected (<5-10). It will basically spell doom for Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Romney were to lose New Hampshire, it'd be all over for him.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs Sarah Palin still working for name recognition? That may be true of the others listed, but I certainly hope it's not true of Palin, because I can't take any more of her working to get her name out there. If it hasn't worked yet, it's not going to.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney should not over inflate expectations in NH.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think Romney's going to finish in the "top two" from this field no matter what happens.
But it's too soon to tell who is going to be the "anti-Romney."
If Palin runs, she's probably it. But I really hope she doesn't (as a hyper/fundraiser/kingmaker she's quite powerful and has a lot of free reign; as a candidate, she'll be kept in a bubble and subjected to endless ridicule all over again. I *think* she's self-aware enough to realize this.)
Otherwise I have a hunch Bachmann might exceed expectations and galvanize the "insurgent wing" of the party (something like "Palin without Palin's baggage.")
Pawlenty is hoping that he can win over enough Tea Partiers while also taking some of the "inside the beltway" support away from Mitt (he's got a shot, but I think his strategy largely depends on more-famous candidates stumbling.)
I don't think there are any other "serious contenders" out there -- including some of these names that keep getting mentioned as "draft candidates" (Paul Ryan is a great guy, but by no means a lock to win a competitive primary race -- let alone the general. Same goes for Christie etc. These are figures who appeal a lot to "tea party republicans" but not necessarily to the general public. I don't see any "game changing" draftable candidates left out there -- if you know of any, I'd like to hear about them!)
It's more than name recog going on here -- I'm sure Palin's more well known than Romney yet she only got 5% to his 32% in this poll. (Romney's from next-door MA of course -- but even Ron Paul has nearly double Palin's support, and Texas is just as exotic as Alaska to New Englanders.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf recent articles saying Giuliani may run bear fruit, that could be a game changer. Giuliani is down at 6% without any campaigning, and with most likely voters thinking he is not running. But if he puts everything into NH, he can suck up enough Romney support to - well maybe not win himself, but maybe weaken Romney enough that another surging candidate can leap into the lead. Imagine a scenario where:
1) Giuliani runs and spends every dime in NH
2) Another candidate - anyone, really - has a stunning win in Iowa as Huckabee did in 2008
3) Said other candidate does "well enough" in NH against a weakened Romney that experts call it a "win" regardless of who actually gets more votes
Then on to South Carolina, where Romney is at a disadvantage, and this another candidate is surging.
Romney will be finished before Super Tuesday.
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and now, an editorial in response to having to watch a commercial to get a captcha. may every search engine result for "DISH network" reveal this post, and tell readers that if you watch DISH network, your genitals will fall off.
Seriously, there is no excuse for this. Either go back to non-advertising captchas, or I stop reading these blogs.
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