Gallup has finally conducted another national survey of GOP presidential-campaign preferences, after the announcements from Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, and Mitch Daniels.
Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup “trial heat” polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point.
Of the 10 candidates included in the newly reduced list, 7 have either officially announced their candidacies or established exploratory committees. Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann are nearing decisions and are expected to get in the race, while Palin’s status as a candidate is less certain.
There isn’t a huge change from previous polls, but notice Herman Cain is starting to creep up into the second tier . . .
I feel bad for the 1 percent who volunteered Huckabee, even after he announced he’s not running.
I think Palin will win the nomination if she runs. I also think that she will not run only if Rick Perry decides to run. In which case, Perry will win the nomination.
Romney has reached his ceiling. With universal name recognition, a high-profile prior run, and enormous financial and organizational advantage, and GOP establishment backing, he cannot get beyond 15-18%.
Pawlenty is not going anywhere either. Cannot create any excitement.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou can't take these polls too seriously, this is basically a name ID poll, but I would like to see a poll with out Palin in it to see what happens to the numbers. I would seem unlikely she would run if she is bound to lose general election by a substantial margin as polls would indicate.
But looking at the numbers this is very much in the air. When some of the candidates start to get out there more in Iowa and New Hampshire those state polls could change, that is probably more important than a national poll. If you want evidence of this see Huckabee and Giuliani 2008.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePalin needs to [expletive deleted] or get off the pot already. I don't think it does her, the conservative movement, or the Party any good to have her lurking in the shadows like this. Obviously she is pulling in significant support but the longer she waits the harder it is for other candidates to potentially attract those voters - they are going to stay committed to Palin until she makes a final decision.
Is anybody bothering to ask any second choice questions? We know the decision for everybody that was included on that list except for Palin and Bachman (no final decision) - everybody else is either officially in or almost certain to get in (even if for short periods). Who might the Palin supporters back if neither Palin nor Bachman run? If a large block of voters move as a group to another candidate - even one polling in down in the field - that other candidate could very well suddenly vault into the front-runner position.
I agree this may be close to Romney's ceiling. I suppose he has a chance to win over a portion of the 22% undecided, but I don't see any other candidate in the field who is a likely "feeder" for Romney. To the extent the other candidates drop out it would appear that only a small fraction of that candidate's supporters would wind up in the Romney camp - he just doesn't seem to fit with the ideology or focus of anybody else in the field. Which means Romney may be hoping for a fractured field that continues into the spring and potentially allows him to rack up a delegate lead despite pulling only say 25%-30% support.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Palin needs to [expletive deleted] or get off the pot already. I don't think it does her, the conservative movement, or the Party any good to have her lurking in the shadows like this. Obviously she is pulling in significant support but the longer she waits the harder it is for other candidates to potentially attract those voters..."
I am sorry to say, but Palin does not owe you or the party anything. After the way the GOP establishment has been treating her, I wouldn't mind if she screws them any way till Sunday.
If other candidates cannot gain traction, it is their &%#$&$# problem, not hers. Sucks to be them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseInteresting to compare this poll to the percentage of coverage by NRO. Pawlenty gets way more coverage here than his poll numbers suggests he deserve.
Palin has no reason to announce yet. Her support is rock-solid. Let the other candidates keep floundering over then summer and then make a late entry.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet's see,
Establishment GOP 34% (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Huntsman)
Tea Party 30% (Palin, Cain, Bachman, Santorum)
Libertarian 12% (Paul, Johnson)
Undecided/other 24%
Interesting
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseInteresting breakdown Prester -- I think it will boil down to an Establishment candidate (Romney) vs. a Teaparty candidate (Palin? Bachmann?), with "Libretarians & undecideds" picking the winner (Libs go Teaparty or 3rd party, undecideds probably to "whoever looks most capable of beating Obama.")
And Cain has pulled ahead of Pawlenty!? Interesting . . .
(PS - Dish Network catcha is particularly annoying!)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGallup left Rudy Giuliani off the list of potential candidates. Today a CNN poll puts him slightly ahead of Romney or Palin. Pawlenty's nowhere in the top tier--which is interesting. It seems to me more serious consideration should be given among conservative pundits to Giuliani's potential candidacy, especially given his strength in battleground states.
He was the only Republican leader asked to campaign for Rubio, Brown and Christie and is a favorite among tea partiers who remember his NY fiscal miracles. And a key consituency of his, the Italian-American vote--is concentrated in big and important states--comprising one-twelfth of the electorate, equal to the black vote in size. That's formidable. It makes Giuliani a powerhouse in states which otherwise would go Democrat--places like PA and NJ without which Obama can't win.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse