We all remember the hullaballoo generated when the AP poll had Obama’s approval rating hitting 60 percent after the Osama bin Laden kill. I, and others, looked at the internals and expressed doubt that the survey’s sample, of 46 percent Democrats and 29 percent Republicans, accurately represented the actual makeup of the public — whether you’re talking registered voters, likely voters, or otherwise.
The Associated Press hasn’t conducted another poll yet, but quite a few pollsters have since early May. Here’s Obama’s approval rating in the polls since then, as collected by RealClearPolitics: 49 percent (Reuters/Ipsos), 52 percent (Politico/GWU/Battleground), 55 percent (Fox News), 51 percent (National Journal), 49 percent (Democracy Corps), 54 percent (CNN), 52 percent (Pew), 48 percent (Rasmussen), 49 percent (Gallup), 47 percent (ABC News/Washington Post).
In other words, the only one that came even close to 60 percent was . . . Fox News.
I believe Fox recently changed polling companies -- the new one seems get more pro-Dem results. Wonder why Fox did that?
Anyway, the only polls I ever take seriously are Rasmussen (best recent track record for accuracy) and Gallup (consistent polling going back to the 1940's, thus the best baseline.)
Any poll with a media company attached (Fox, CBS, AP, whoever) is immediately suspect -- those are "PR polls" intended to generate news and thus advertising revenue. I don't believe they care about "scientific accuracy."
RCP average isn't worth a lot for national polls, as it just dillutes the good scientific polls with the cruddy
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