The report that Sarah Palin will make a decision on whether or not to run for president in the coming week comes as surprising news to Sarah Palin.
The report at the American Spectator cites “vendors of campaign services who hope to work for Team Palin” that a decision is coming soon.
The Palin tweet certainly suggests that she doesn’t plan to make her decision next week.
Ordinarily, I’m among those who contend that there’s no need for presidential campaigns to turn into two-year marathons, and that media impatience is not a good reason for a candidate to jump in so long before anyone casts any actual votes. But the traditional starting gun of presidential cycles is the Ames straw poll held in August. The 2012 cycle didn’t see the epically early launches of the 2008 cycle, but the ranks of the unaffiliated staffers and volunteers grows thinner week by week. The race is starting to take shape, and other figures like Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann are starting to get longer, more serious looks from grassroots Republicans. Palin’s high name ID and likely fundraising prowess indicate she can operate on her own timetable, but one wonders just how late she could announce before the Iowa caucuses February 6.
Certainly no later than the end of the year, right? And presuming her likely road to the nomination would include wins or near-wins in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, could she really concede any activity in those states from now until the end of the year?
A campaign is more than just a candidate (unless you’re Newt Gingrich). Somebody has to organize the maximum turnout of supporters at the 1,784 caucuses in Iowa; somebody has to man the phone banks, design the mailers, answer the phone calls, tell the volunteers what to do and where to do it to be most effective, etc. The most important resource of any campaign is the time, attention, and energy of the candidate; the whole point of a campaign is to help do everything else that needs to be done so that the candidate’s time can be used most effectively. To do this, you need a team; to do that, you need to recruit, and to do that, you need, if not a declared campaign, a nascent one.
Sarah Palin still has time to think about what is, undoubtedly, a major, life-altering decision. But that time is limited.
UPDATE: Here’s one deadline for a decision, from the New Hampshire secretary of state’s office . . . unless any candidate isn’t interested in appearing on the ballot in New Hampshire’s primary:
The filing period will be between the first Monday in November and the third Friday in November or during such other time period as the secretary of state shall announce. A declaration of candidacy must be filed in the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s Office along with a filing fee of $1,000.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Robert Stacy McCain, who has always seemed a pretty darn reliable reporter, says his sources stand by their statements. He points out that Palin’s Tweet, while certainly in a scoffing tone, is not an explicit denial.
It is quite easy to picture a statement from Palin or someone close to her offering some sort of informed speculation — “she thinks she’ll decide by then,” being interpreted as more definitive as the comment is repeated. For whatever reason, some campaign vendors who want to work with a Palin presidential campaign expected to hear a decision within the next week. Palin’s comment on Twitter suggests that won’t be the case; I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Just because you're not aware of such an "on the ground" organization isn't necessarily a sign that it doesn't exist.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseExactly, as I recall there is a guy who has traveled to every county in Iowa on his own talking to all party officials and anyone who would listen, ostensibly gauging level of support for Palin (not on her behalf he would quickly add)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOne of the things that makes Palin so attractive to the great unwashed is her unconventional approach to politics, and another is her disdain for the MSM. She's been combining both of these to tweak the CD elite ... masterfully I might add.
I have no idea if she going to run or not, and your right that she doesn't have all the time in the world to make up her mind. But it's sure fun watching her play with all the "experts" like a cat with a bunch of mice.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePalin says "Unconventional" and that includes waiting until a R nominee is finalized, and if that nominee ain't up to the Palin standards, she may challenge the nominee in a summer convention showdown like they used to in the 1800s, in an attempt to switch Delegates.
A more recent example is how Hillary almost was planning on that until the Superdelgates nixed her chances.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy best guess is that one of Perry or Palin will get in about late summer, early fall.
I am 95% certain that both will not run at the same time. It will be one or the other, with Perry being 60-40.
After that, it will be a straight up match between Romney an Perry/Palin. All other candidates will wither.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEven for a conventional campaign, June is absolutely too early.
The appeal of the candidate depends on the candidate, not on when they announce.
Prime example is Tim Pawlenty, who has been running for ever. Still stuck at MoE of 0% (6, 4, 9-PPP-D, 6, 5, 3, 2, 4, 5) in all polls in June. Apart from one poll from PPP-D, he has been in low to mid-single digits since January. At some point, he has too figure that there is only one slot for Dem-lite in the GOP primary.
And don't even make me bring up Santorum, Newt, Huntsman et al, who will not get any meaningful votes, no matter what they poll where. There just is no rationale for any of them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGeraghty sounds like he's stamping his little feets or is that tweets? He and the other NR boyz will be the last to know what SP does. She's operating unconventionally alright and is also inside the OODA loop of the punditry and the opposition of both stupid parties.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseShe may run 3rd party, she may swoop in again and finish pitiful Mitt's sad candidacy, she may move to Arizona and put McCain out of his nightmarish Senate seat, only Super Sarah KNOWS!
One thing she does right now is keep all the idiot punditry in nervous nelly mode and that's just great.
Palin, I am sure, understands that as time passes, there's the risk that the voters will coalesce behind a current candidate.
But Allahpundit at Hot Air is badly mistaken to think that Palin would choose to announce her candidacy at the same time The Undefeated opens in Iowa. It makes far more sense to wait a bit and see if that movie makes a difference in poll numbers and buzz before making a final decision on entering the race.
Don't forget that Palin has SarahPAC and Conservatives4Palin, among other organizations, already in operation and lining up potential grassroots volunteers. Bachmann, too, has long had a national donor base, and she's using that to ramp up her campaign quickly. Palin can do that even more intensively.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I were she, I would make my announcement to the SarahPAC mailing list and let the MSM learn about it from them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I were she, I would make my announcement to the SarahPAC mailing list and let the MSM learn about it from them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"He points out that Palin’s Tweet, while certainly in a scoffing tone, is not an explicit denial."
He's a good guy, but I'm with you that her tweet pretty much confirms next week is not THE WEEK. Most of us, at one point or another, fall into the "she didn't say 'no', so she must be going to the prom with me" dreamery.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Organize4Palin is not connected to Palin or her political action committee. Volunteer regional directors and COUNTY teams are “intensively” working to organize in Iowa, said Organize4Palin’s Iowa leader, Peter Singleton, who has been scouting for Palin fans here since November. “I consider the other guys pretty formidable. They have lots of money and lots of skilled operatives and the like, but I think they’re underestimating her grass-roots base here in Iowa.”
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"The guy has compiled a truly encyclopedic knowledge of Iowa politics and Iowa political operatives," she said as Mr. Singleton worked the room, pulling aside members of the county's central committee. "He also seems strangely prescient about the internal workings of Sarah Palin's own operation."
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNovember 13, 1979 - Reagan announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination for President. He is the tenth and last Republican to enter the race.
November 4, 1980 - In a landslide victory, Reagan is elected the President of the United States.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYeah, exept Reagan was far and away the consensus pick for the nomination. No other Republican was even close to him throughout 1979.
In fact, Reagan's dithering cost him the Iowa caucuses in a massive upset. It was only when he got serious about, you know, actually running for president that he blew away the field.
Like I said, let me know when the Alaska Hamlet runs for president.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe McCain's source isn't misinformed. Perhaps Palin explicitly communicated a commitment to vendors to render a decision within a week; but merely scoffed at, as she interpreted, being told what she's "expected to do" -- a quote, notably a contrived one, cited by Palin in her tweeted response to McCain's report.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe she announces November 5, 2012. I dunno, I'm just getting bored with the Alaska Hamlet. When she shows up for a debate, let me know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRSM is a good reporter and he was definitely told what he was told by someone. I think RSM's sources are going a bit rogue on this one, maybe floating a trial baloon for Palin.
Palin is not my first choice to be the candidate against Obama, but I love how she tweeks the heck out of the other side.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe great thing about Palin supporters is that any action will be portrayed as playing the MSM like a fiddle. "She fell down the stairs! Take that lamestream!"
Thank God for Rick Perry.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, because Rick Perry is so right on the immigration issue that he signed legislation which allowed for instate tuition for illegal aliens.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'll back Sam's bet. I don't think either Palin or Perry will announce much sooner than Labor Day and I don't think one will run if the other does. I do think the one that chooses to get in will quickly get the other's endorsement. I also agree with Sam on the odds, at least as of now, although I'd peg it about 70-30 Perry runs and 30-70 Palin does. Labor Day is PLENTY soon enough. It's not like either one has to pay supporters' way to straw polls to be noticed.
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