So how late can a Rick Perry*, or Sarah Palin, or “Candidate X” wait before jumping into the race?
If we presume that an aspiring Republican president would want to appear on the ballot, and not be forced to try to run a write-in campaign — a pretty safe bet, no? — then we can look at the deadlines for filing to appear on the primary ballots.
In the Iowa caucus, caucusgoers are given blank sheets of paper on which to write the names of their preferred candidates, so there is no “filing” per se for candidates.
In New Hampshire, the filing deadline to appear on the ballot for the presidential primary is November 21.
In South Carolina, the state GOP informs me that the filing deadline for the Republican presidential primary is November 1.
Nevada is a caucus, and thus there is no formal “filing” of candidates.
Back in 2008, the earliest filing deadlines were in Utah (October 14), Florida (October 31), and Michigan (October 23); you’ll recall the controversy that surrounded Michigan’s and Florida’s early primaries.
Presuming that no Republican wants to concede South Carolina — the winner of the Palmetto State primary has always gone on to win the nomination — then the real deadline for getting into the race is November 1 — a mere 105 days away.
* Perry’s decision is expected within the next few weeks.
UPDATE: Tim Hagle, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, writes in to clarify: “In your post you note that Iowa caucus-goers are given blank sheets of paper to fill in names. That’s not quite true. Whether it’s done by the state party, the county party, or a candidate’s organization there’s usually some type of ballot that lists all the folks that are in the race. You are correct that there’s no filing deadline of any sort, but to get on such a ballot someone must probably have declared as a presidential candidate. An undeclared candidate like Palin might get on, but someone officially undeclared is more likely left to write in status.”
That's why Palin told her supporters she'd decide by end of September....so she'd still have two more months to keep teasing them upto November. She'll hit late September, get asked if she's going to run, and say "No, I'm not...but if I feel that one of the other candidates isn't addressing the issues people care about, I may reconsider."
That way she gets to lure them along for another couple months until even THEY figure out it's "too late".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGov. Palin said that aug/sept would be the time to announce.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe MigraineGate will likley force Bachmann to exit (thanks to T Paw who likley leaked to Daily Caller), Enter Palin then.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusemigrainegate? seriously? this is a non-issue unless you are already predisposed to hate her.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat History Buff said.
It's long past time that Sarah Palin is included in any serious discussions of potential Republican candidates.
Operative word being serious.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBecause it's the newest talking point for Anybody but Palin crowd. "Palin is too late, party crasher, etc." These folk are becoming too predictable.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseVery true.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusemeanwhile, the anybody but Palin crowd is still tingling with the thought that Chris Christie might run...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"* Perry’s decision is expected within the next few weeks."
As I recall Perry's decision was supposed to have come at the end of legislative session (June 30). That is three weeks ago by my calculation. What is he still waiting for?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePerry actually said he wouldn't think about it until after session. He didn't say ANYTHING remotely close to "I will decide and announce immediately after session."
My prediction: he announces right after completing his day of prayer.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePerry is going to get in. With T-Paw, not taking off and Bachmann not electable he is the guy. Palin is the wild card, but I think she knows that she would likely not win the primary...for the record I like Palin.
If Perry gets in, it will quickly become a Romney v. Perry Race...I see Perry winning that battle. Perry would likely take Iowa, Romney wins NH, Perry Takes SC, Romney takes NV. Florida will likely be the determining factor, and with the Rubio win in 2010, I the more conservative Republicans will tip the scale to Perry. Putting him ahead going into Super Tuesday. Perry will likely start getting the endorsements from T-Paw, Palin, and Bachman, making it impossible for Romney to win. Perry v. Obama will be interesting. Perry will hammer home that he will bring the Texas success to the rest of the nation, he will hammer home that Texas is successful because of limited Government. Its a natural line, it will unite the tea party and the GOP. As part of the ticket Perry will likely choose T-paw or Rubio.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePolls, for what they are worth are not agreeing with you. Neither Perry or Bachmann will succeed despite valiant efforts of "anybody but Palin" crowd. It appears that it will be Romney vs Palin and I like my chances with the one who fights like a girl.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEverybody who is getting in will be in by Labor Day, mark my words.
Those who want to compete in Iowa will either be in by Ames or jump in after it so they don't have to waste the money but won't appear to be shortchanging the Iowa GOP (the Straw Poll is a major fundraiser for the State Party). But even those who don't want to contest Iowa will need to get in around then, if not before.
Palin's following could let her get in later, but there is a huge logistical problem for anyone getting in now. Most of the good staffers at the national and state level are already working for someone else. They couldn't afford to play a waiting game and end up sitting out the whole cycle. Perry picked up a few from the Gingrich defection, and has a decent framework of a team from Texas already, but for anyone else (including Palin) it's getting very late in the day.
The paid organizers, consultants, pollsters, and fundraisers are a necessity for a successful run at a major party nomination. Some believe Palin's promise to run an "unconventional" campaign if she did get in means she could win with just volunteers, Facebook, and Twitter.
They're so cute when they get their hopes up like that, aren't they? But the pony never shows up under the Christmas tree, does it?
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I must protest being forced to enter a pro-GE slogan in the "capcha" to comment here. GE has become a leftist parasitic company since Jack Welch retired. They were behind the whole light bulb prohibition, and Welch successor Immelt is a big Obama buddy. Maybe you can't choose your advertisers . . . but must you offend everyone on your own side?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat about all of the staffers who will be unemployed after Ames? T-Paw organization maybe available at wholesale price.
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