ABC News, with the egregious polling spin of the day, with the easily overlooked details in bold:
President Obama is holding onto a 7 point lead over his chief Republican rival, Mitt Romney, in the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll.
If the 2012 election were held today, 51 percent of adults said they would pick Obama compared to 44 percent who would support the former Massachusetts governor. (They were tied in early June.) Important to note, however, is that among registered voters, Obama’s lead over Romney narrows to 49 percent to 47 percent. No other Republican challenger fares as well as Romney in head-to-head matchups against the president. http://abcn.ws/nUXx7F
I don’t gripe about pollsters who give us presidential job-approval numbers using a sample of “adults,” because adults who aren’t registered to vote can have an opinion on how the president is doing. But for anything resembling an election match-up, “registered voters” should be the minimum limit on the respondent pool, not the maximum. To get a more useful measurement, we should be looking at likely voters.
I realize that some pollsters will argue that this far away from Election Day 2012, it’s not easy to determine who a likely voter is. Of course, I’d start by weeding out those over age 21 who were eligible to vote in past presidential elections and who have never voted in one before. Will you miss out on some folks who will vote for the first time in 2012 that way? Sure, but as a proportion of the electorate as a whole, they’re going to be pretty marginal.
Even better - does "adult" include Canadians? Nepalese? Rwandans? How do we know? If not, why not?
What does "adult" even mean - >18, 21, 50, 65?
What with margin of error, phrasing, and timing variables, do such polls mean anything?
I think the Wisconsin recall votes are next. They'll be worth watching.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Romney is the nominee (which I would say is about 60% certain right now) Romney-Rubio has a nice ring to it, but it is probably going to be Romney-Portman, which is good enough I guess.
BTW I would like to see Romney get at the very least a run for his money, to see if there is a better alternative. Bachamnn and Cain are not capable of it, they are imploding. Gingrich has imploded. Perry might be able to do it, but I have doubts about his electability in the general. Someone needs to wake Pawlenty the hell up, he looked good on paper, but he seems to be invisible. And I don't know what the hell Huntsman is doing. So right now it looks like it is Romney by default.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThey're touting a poll of adults because it fits their bias; i.e., it makes Obama look like he's in a better position than he really is...
I guess it's good though...the bias is becoming so blatantly obvious nowadays that most people don't respect the MSM anymore.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt gets even better!
I looked at the detailed .pdf of the poll linked:
External Link
I could not find a breakdown of partisan affilation reported anywhere. What are they hiding?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA number of polling organizations claim that polls of all adults will include people who may lean Democrat but not actually vote. Republicans, they explain, are more likely to vote than Democrats.
My question is: how do they know that? Given the near total lock that liberals have on the media and the universities, it is far more plausible to suggest that Democrats are more likely to vote than Republicans - and that is not taking into account the busy little tax-supported beavers at ACORN and SEIU with their voting fraud machine.
Polls involving "all adults" seem to be a fantasy Universe that can never be independently checked (an unfalsifiable hypothesis, in other words). If Polls-R-Us says Senator Dumbassdemocrat has the support of 60% of all adults in her state but loses re-election by 55-45, the pollsters utilize the Republicans-are-more-likely-to-vote excuse. But can they prove it?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy Are News Organizations Touting Polls of Adults? Because they're liberal and biased news organizations that are attempting to use their power and influence to manipulate public opinion in favor of Barack Obama. While it's discouraging to admit, some voters choose the candidate they believe will win, not the candidate they believe is the best choice. If that weren't true, media manipulation wouldn't work. But it is and it does.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh, like you have to ask the question, Jim. :)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh, okay...can we cite the FOX NEWS polls that show the President beating all the GOP hopefuls? Even beating the new "saviour" Rick Perry by 10%???
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse