The cheery Jon Huntsman, appearing on CBS News’ The Early Show, says he’s not worried by polls showing him in the low single digits, declaring, “We’ve got a long way to go… we’re in the early days, the dog days of summer.”
All true enough, but apparently the early date and summer doldrums don’t affect every candidate equally. Without an announcement, during these same dog days of summer, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is drawing 15 percent in the newest Gallup poll, good for second place to Mitt Romney.
It must be that the Texan is just used to that summer heat. Actually, I thought Utah also got pretty hot in summer. China too, in fact.
In Huntsman’s defense, the poll lead in July the preceding year isn’t worth that much. At this point four years ago, the RealClearPolitics average put Rudy Giuliani in the lead at 26.3 percent, Fred Thompson at 19.3 percent, eventual nominee John McCain at 14 percent, Mitt Romney at 9.3 percent, and Mike Huckabee at 2 percent. Polls change.
Is it just my monitor, or has he been going heavy on the fake tan spay? He looks like an Oompa loompa.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHis only shot is to knock off Romney and win NH, which he cannot do. He may take a fraction of the air left in Pawlenty's campaign, but I can't imagine anyone inclined to support Pawlenty now would want to back another alternative to Romney if Pawlenty never gets out of the gates. I also think that Perry's entrance hurts guys like Pawlenty and Huntsman because center leaning NH voters may consolidate behind Romney if they're not wild about a evangelical, tea party favorite from Texas. (Especially if Perry wins Iowa.)
I don't think Romney's base of support is as fragile as the media makes it out to be. It may be capped due to his religion and center leaning views, but it's not going away in the early primaries. I really don't understand Huntsman's purpose.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThose poll numbers in 2007 are interesting. Amazing that Guiliani and Fred could drop that much in just 5 months.
I think it validates my theories:
1. Polls are meaningless this far out
2. Eventual contenders need to have money, charisma and/or name recognition.
People like Perry will probably do OK, provided he can live up to the buzz and not turn into Fred Part Deux. Romney will stay a factor based on name recognition and money. Bachmann will also remain a contender, as will Palin if she enters.
But people like Huntsman or Pawlenty? No chance.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Those poll numbers in 2007 are interesting. Amazing that Guiliani and Fred could drop that much in just 5 months."
This is only a glimpse. Here's are some actual numbers, which are even more remarkable:
Giuliani led 143 out of 148 national GOP primary polls throughout 2007.
Romney led 29 STRAIGHT Iowa polls between June and Nov 2007. 29 straight. Lost by 9.5.
Romney also led 49 STRAIGHT NH polls between May and Dec 2007. That's right, 49 straight. Lost by 5.5.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe big problem is, there is a LOT of shallow and undeclared support out there. It is hard to predict where it will end up - but the more well-formed an opinion the public has on someone, the less likely that someone is to pick it up. Romney is the best known declared candidate. He has been out there campaigning for President since 2006. People have made up their minds about him and... they are still looking for someone better to come along.
The next big problem is, there are a LOT of potential candidates, and as long as they are not unequivocally removed from the race, their latent support muddies up polls. Chris Christie can say he isn't running until he is blue in the face - but he will still get 10% from people who are hopeful he MIGHT change his mind. Not until people are faced with real ballots that only have X number of names on them do we start to see where a lot of people go with their support. Likewise, people who support losers like Pawlenty remain a wild card. It is one thing to run a poll that only includes front runners - but as long as there are other choices on people's minds, those polls don't really tell you the truth.
The only way we start to see what REALLY happens is when the choices start to narrow down AND the also-rans not only drop out but start to ENDORSE. Until, for instance, Chris Christie comes out and says "hey, yous guys, support THIS candidate ovah heeyah!", we can't really begin to predict who - if anyone - the Christie die-hards will fall back on.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHuntsman comes across very well in interviews, and this is no exception.
There's no reason he couldn't win the nomination. He has yet to appear in a debate, and he could serve as the credible center-right opponent of Romney, while Bachmann & Perry split up the right flank of the party.
You could foreseeable have a Romney/Huntsman battle going on in states like NH, FL, MI, while Bachmann/Perry duke it out in Iowa, SC, etc.
I think that Huntsman is a much stronger candidate than Romney, based primarily on his record of job creation in Utah.
Way too early to write him off.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOK - you political geniuses -- Did it ever occur to any of you that Huntsman isn't after the top spot. Huntsman and Perry are actually quite good friends and have had dinner at least twice since Huntsman returned from China. Huntsman is ten years younger than Perry, so he has plenty of time to go for the top of the ticket later on. But if Perry grabs the nomination -- and puts Huntsman on as VP, he softens his far right Elmer Gantry persona and soothes the anxieties of more traditional Republicans. In the meantime, Huntsman softens up Romney support just enough to let Perry slip in. Perry and Romney share similar positions on immigration and gay marriage -- but they also have in common their dislike for Mitt Romney. And if it's not the VP spot Huntsman is after, you can bet he'd love the Secretary of State slot in a Republican administration.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI watch Huntsman and conclude: Now this is a guy that can outdebate the president. This is what we need. If our candidate gets smoked by Obama during the debates, the game is over, no matter how bad the economy is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTexan? Utahan? I wish he'd come back to California where he originally grew up, and represent us here. We could do with a few less outsiders claiming to be Californians like Brooklyn Boxer and Boston Pelosi.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe unbearable lightness of Jon Huntsman. He was my governor until he resigned to serve as Ambassador to China, but I can't say he left any impression other than a weather vane would.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse