There's a lot of day to day random variation, so you shouldn't really take much stock in one day's change in the numbers.
Look at the weekly or monthly tabs and they follow more consistent trends (averaging a whole week or month of results smooths out the random variations.)
Weekly approval: he was at 43% last week, tying the lowest week of his presidency. Since he's going to have a 40% day included in the average for this week, he may very well hit a new alltime low in this poll when they publish the update next week.
Conveniently this headline-making new low ought to be reported on Monday Aug 1, the day before "armageddon".
Actually, Democrats have the multi-billion dollar propaganda machine of the media to motivate their voters. Permanent, unhinged, foaming at the mouth rage is the normal state of a typical Democrat-leaning voter.
He's the ultimate loser in all of this, assuming the GOP can keep stating its case repeatedly for months(something they've never shown the ability to do).
Tropean- fair question. Ras uses a database of "likely voters" Gallup is the Gold Standard of the Registered voter database. Gallup is more volatile because their surveys capture a broader base of less committed registered but less likely voters; Ras tends to focus more committed repeat voters and his surveys tend to move less than Gallup week to week. Bottomline, in nonelection years Gallup is a better "popularity poll" of current attitudes, as you get closer to elections, Ras has been very accurate pegging results.
In the last couple months before an election, Gallup also switches to a Likely Voter model (which is why their numbers suddenly get closer to Rasmussen's at the end.)
One of the best things in Gallup's favor is they have historical data back to the 1940's (Ras is only 15-20 years old.)
So one can look at longer trends and come up with rules of thumb such as "no preseident has ever been reelected with a Gallup approval rating under 45%".
And look where Obama is today -- can he be beaten? If things continue this way, it's harder to imagine a scenario where he can win.
He has less than one year to turn the economy around definitively, yet it is getting worse as we speak. The utility of winning the debt standoff as a demogoguery club for the Dems is small beans compared to crushing unemployment, stagnant growth, creeping inflation and a falling currency. What's Obama's plan to fix the economy -- keep blaming republicans?
Or could always accuse everyone of being racist . . . (that actually happened to me yesterday! What steams me the most is not the charge which I know is false and can brush off (especially coming from a white lady!!) -- it's the way that tactic was used. When asked a question she didn't want to answer (one which had nothing to do with race), she responded by calling me "racist!!" It's a desperation move to change the subject. Of course she never did attempt to answer my question. Sad little PC princess . . . now I know how Juan Williams felt dealing with those jerks at NPR!)
the sample is only relevant to your purpose. If you want to know his general unpopularity then Gallup sample of adults is fine, if you want to see the effect of the electorate, then Rasmussen's is more accurate.
I am frankly shocked that he is still as high as 40%. I wonder how accurate these polls really are? Are they really capturing a representative sample in the cell phone and internet age? Are people unwilling to say bad things about Obama to an unknown pollster because of fear of perceived racism? How is the geographical distribution? Is the urban/rural divide accurately captured? What is the margin of error, and could Obama's popularity actually be much closer to the low end of the spread?
We want Obi-Wan!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think even Rasmussen has Obama higher than that. Thoughts on the disparity?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGallup normally polls all adults vs. likely voters for Rasmusson.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo likely voters like Obama better than just adults? That seems way off.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere's a lot of day to day random variation, so you shouldn't really take much stock in one day's change in the numbers.
Look at the weekly or monthly tabs and they follow more consistent trends (averaging a whole week or month of results smooths out the random variations.)
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Weekly approval: he was at 43% last week, tying the lowest week of his presidency. Since he's going to have a 40% day included in the average for this week, he may very well hit a new alltime low in this poll when they publish the update next week.
Conveniently this headline-making new low ought to be reported on Monday Aug 1, the day before "armageddon".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually, Democrats have the multi-billion dollar propaganda machine of the media to motivate their voters. Permanent, unhinged, foaming at the mouth rage is the normal state of a typical Democrat-leaning voter.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHe's the ultimate loser in all of this, assuming the GOP can keep stating its case repeatedly for months(something they've never shown the ability to do).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseB,b,but those Tea Party kooks are ruining the country!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTropean- fair question. Ras uses a database of "likely voters" Gallup is the Gold Standard of the Registered voter database. Gallup is more volatile because their surveys capture a broader base of less committed registered but less likely voters; Ras tends to focus more committed repeat voters and his surveys tend to move less than Gallup week to week. Bottomline, in nonelection years Gallup is a better "popularity poll" of current attitudes, as you get closer to elections, Ras has been very accurate pegging results.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn the last couple months before an election, Gallup also switches to a Likely Voter model (which is why their numbers suddenly get closer to Rasmussen's at the end.)
One of the best things in Gallup's favor is they have historical data back to the 1940's (Ras is only 15-20 years old.)
So one can look at longer trends and come up with rules of thumb such as "no preseident has ever been reelected with a Gallup approval rating under 45%".
And look where Obama is today -- can he be beaten? If things continue this way, it's harder to imagine a scenario where he can win.
He has less than one year to turn the economy around definitively, yet it is getting worse as we speak. The utility of winning the debt standoff as a demogoguery club for the Dems is small beans compared to crushing unemployment, stagnant growth, creeping inflation and a falling currency. What's Obama's plan to fix the economy -- keep blaming republicans?
Or could always accuse everyone of being racist . . . (that actually happened to me yesterday! What steams me the most is not the charge which I know is false and can brush off (especially coming from a white lady!!) -- it's the way that tactic was used. When asked a question she didn't want to answer (one which had nothing to do with race), she responded by calling me "racist!!" It's a desperation move to change the subject. Of course she never did attempt to answer my question. Sad little PC princess . . . now I know how Juan Williams felt dealing with those jerks at NPR!)
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusethe sample is only relevant to your purpose. If you want to know his general unpopularity then Gallup sample of adults is fine, if you want to see the effect of the electorate, then Rasmussen's is more accurate.
Either way, Barry's a loser.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am frankly shocked that he is still as high as 40%. I wonder how accurate these polls really are? Are they really capturing a representative sample in the cell phone and internet age? Are people unwilling to say bad things about Obama to an unknown pollster because of fear of perceived racism? How is the geographical distribution? Is the urban/rural divide accurately captured? What is the margin of error, and could Obama's popularity actually be much closer to the low end of the spread?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse