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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

In Florida Poll, Obama Finds No Sunshine, Only Rain



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In the Sunshine State, President Obama finds no sunshine, only rain:

The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama’s crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 – 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 – 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 – 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 – 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

This compares to a positive 51 – 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll. Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 – 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 – 46 percent split before the deal and 50 – 44 percent support for his reelection May 26. 

Obama’s not doing quite so bad in head-to-head polls, but he’s still losing ground:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race, ties Obama 44 – 44 percent post-deal, compared to a 46 – 41 percent Obama lead pre-deal. Obama has double-digit leads over other top Republicans pre-deal and post-deal, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44 – 39 percent post-deal. 

“President Barack Obama’s numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The president’s drop off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1.” 

The post-debt deal poll shows little change in Obama’s May approval among Republicans and Democrats. But among independent voters he plummets from a 47 – 45 percent split in May to a 61 – 33 percent disapproval today.

Meanwhile in the Senate race…

Looking at Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson gets a 45 – 33 percent approval rating, pre-deal, and a 42 – 35 percent score post-deal. Nelson leads an unnamed Republican challenger 46 – 35 percent post-deal.

The race for the GOP senate nomination remains wide open with 53 percent of Republicans undecided. Michael McCalister, a retired military official and businessman, gets 15 percent followed by former Sen. George LeMieux at 12 percent, businessman Craig Miller at 8 percent and former House GOP leader Adam Hasner at 6 percent.


Tags: Barack Obama , Florida


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