Is today’s jobs report good news? Oh, the headlines will be nice: A lowering of the national unemployment rate from 9.2 percent to 9.1 percent, private sector employment increasing by 154,000, a revision of previous months’ data to show slightly better numbers…
But as many others have noted this morning, almost another 200,000 Americans left the work force in the past month, which accounts for a chunk of the unemployment drop.
My data-minded correspondent Number Cruncher checks in, more alarmed than most about the report, because he’s looking harder at the data reported from households instead of from employers:
According to the Household Survey, the United States is at its lowest employment point since the recession began. Specifically I point to the Employment-population ratio which is now at 58.1% down 0.1% over last month. The Household survey also showed a drop of 37,000 over last month. Since May of 2011, we have lost almost 500k jobs (May of 2011 indicated 139.78 Million; July of 2011 139.29 million). To provide some comparison… in July of 2010, the Unemployment-population ratio was 58.4% and the number of employed was 138.99 Million). Thus in the last 12 months we have added only 300k jobs, which is not going to keep up with the 1.8 million people who over the past 12 month were added to the able body worker population.
As for the unemployment drop…almost 200k people left the civilian work force last month, this is why the unemployment rate dropped, this has been reported.
Jim, these numbers are terrible! I realize the establishment survey indicated some growth, but one cannot ignore the Household survey…at best we have conflicted data. However, it is worse than that because until the Household survey shows employment growth we are not growing! Look at any recession and you will see the household number pickup before the establishment number. Given that the household survey is showing decline is proof positive that no rational business person wants to do anything in the Obama run regulated economy… November 2012 cannot come fast enough.
Put another way, the month President Obama took office, 81,293,000 Americans, age 16 and older were not in the labor force.
Today, 84,859,000 Americans, age 16 and older, are not in the labor force.
In short, the policies of the administration have successfully driven 3,566,000 Americans from the work force. But as President Obama says after every jobs report, “we have a long way to go.”
Another data point: The number of Americans who are classified as not being in the labor force, but who want a job was tabulated at 5,866,000 in January 2009; last month it was 6,810,000. (In June it was 7,124,000!)
I am shocked, Mr Gerahty, shocked....to learn that you find no good news in good economic news. Doubtless a change in the political affiliation of the Presidency will fix that, yes?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHow does one political ideology mask raw numbers. The household survey has shown extreme weakness, its also the same survey used to compute the unemployment rate. Jim is pointing out the numbers. Even on the main blog where the posts have been on balance positive, we get this...
"The only legitimately negative part of today’s report was that household employment, an alternative measure of jobs, declined 38,000 and is up only 63,000 per month in the past year. Usually this measure of jobs leads payrolls in recoveries. It may be lagging this time as smaller firms are more likely to remain credit-constrained than their larger counterparts."
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I believe Stein is understating this point(also was incorrect in his annual number). Until Small business grows you are not going to get a recovery...said another way you have to walk before you run! The fact that we have lost almost 500k jobs on the Household Survey in the past three months, and have gained 300k jobs over the last 12 months (while at the same time the able body population has grown by 1.8 million) is problematic. While the establishment data is "ok", the household survey an enormous survey of 60,000 households is not! Instead of being a partisan troll, why not read the data and respond accordingly! After all you call yourself a "History Buff".
Perhaps you should educate yourself:
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Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Another data point: The number of Americans who are classified as not being in the labor force, but who want a job was tabulated at 5,866,000 in January 2009; last month it was 6,810,000. (In June it was 7,124,000!)"
Between June and July, did 300,000 people stop wanting jobs, did they get jobs, did they rejoin the labor force without getting jobs, or did they pass away? The job numbers indicate that it's unlikely they got jobs (only 150,000 net new jobs) or rejoined the labor force (200,000 people dropped out) -- so I guess that means they gave up entirely on wanting a job... or dropped dead.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThese numbers don't really count the under-employed either. I'm convinced there are a lot of boomers in particular who are currently UNDER-employed. We are doomed.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"In short, the policies of the administration have successfully driven 3,566,000 Americans from the work force."
Because everything O wanted to do immediately took effect from the very first month he took office. Everything from his *first day* in office is his responsibility. Nothing that took place in the days, weeks, months, and years before had any bearing at all on anything. (source: "HackMagic: The Magical Way of Thinking").
P.S. GatewayPundit has some great charts that Geraghty should use too, if he hasn't already.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, speaking as a small business owner:
-my husband and I have decided it is worth shutting down his small business after this season. In 2007, he made 45k after expenses. Decent. Last year, 9k after expenses. It isn't worth his time on those margins, so you'll be able to add 1.5 people (one full time, one part time) to the unemployment rolls come December.
-my business has stopped hiring. We're at 49 people. We could stand to hire more. But if we add one more, we're in Family Medical Leave Act territory. No way, no how, esp. given that our health insurance costs already went up 30% this past year in anticipation of Obamacare. I can't price the employee costs, but I know it will be nothing but up, up, up. And given that the customers I serve are driving their budgets with me down, down, down due to their own economic conditions, I'm not poking a stick at that sleeping dog...
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